\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 245 Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) )
Lithium battery track has strong ductility. In addition to electric tools, application scenarios such as electric bicycle, vacuum cleaner and portable energy storage continue to appear, and the industry space is opened. At the same time, the products of electric tool batteries are iterating to high capacity and high rate, and China's leading enterprises are expected to usher in accelerated replacement.
The lithium electrification rate of tools has been improved, and the battery industry has strong scalability
The cordless rate of electric tools in 2020 is close to 50%, while the cordless rate of outdoor power equipment (mostly garden tools) in the new market has brought an increase in the demand for lithium batteries, and the cordless rate is less than 20%. From the perspective of product extension, the small cylindrical battery can be extended to vacuum cleaners, electric bicycles, portable energy storage and other tracks. We expect that in 2025, the number of small power batteries will reach 8.2 billion (5 billion electric tools + 1.25 billion vacuum cleaners + 1.8 billion electric bicycles), with a CAGR of about 21% in five years.
Technology iteration: large capacity and high rate become the trend, and battery enterprises may open the gap
Chinese enterprises focus on 2.0ah products, 2.5ah and above products need to be broken through, and 2.5ah and above high-capacity batteries are currently dominated by Japan and South Korea. Battery products are still iterating, and high-performance batteries are more difficult. Head battery enterprises are expected to open the gap with other enterprises.
Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) : focus on tool battery track and high-end products
The company acquired Tianpeng power in May 2016, focusing on the field of consumer small power batteries. The global market share of electric tool batteries increased from 6.5% in 2017 to 8.8% in 2020, ranking among the first tier in China.
The technical breakthrough of high-capacity and high-power battery and its close performance compared with overseas enterprises are the reasons for the increase of market share: 1) 30A high-power battery made progress in 2019 and broke the monopoly of Japan and South Korea. 2) In terms of product performance, the performance of some products of Tianpeng power supply has been better than that of overseas products. Comparing Samsung and Tianpeng power products with the same size and capacity, Tianpeng power products have higher continuous discharge current.
From the perspective of customer structure, the company has entered the high-end products of tool enterprises such as TTI, Bosch and Stanley Agriculture Group Co.Ltd(002588) Baide. The company signed a long order with Bosch, and began to supply 2.5ah products in 2022, and also launched 21700 series batteries in 2021. The increase in the proportion of high-end batteries with large capacity and high performance is expected to improve the profitability of the company.
From the perspective of product reserves, high-energy and high rate batteries are under research, and some 21700 high-capacity products have been closed. In addition to capacity and magnification, fast charging, high security and other products continue to iterate. In 2021, the company's R & D expenditure was 340 million, and the R & D expenditure rate was 5.1%, which was at a high level compared with similar enterprises.
Profit forecast and valuation
Blue looks at capacity expansion and product structure upgrading in the short term and downstream extension in the long term. It is estimated that the production capacity will reach 400, 1.25 and 1.8 billion by the end of 21-23, and the output of lithium batteries in 21-23 will be 390, 700 and 1.2 billion respectively. In terms of product structure, the proportion of 2.5ah products and 21700 batteries is increased, and the profitability of a single battery is expected to be improved.
Compared with similar lithium battery enterprises, PE of Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) 2022 was 30, 31 and 22x respectively. Considering that the net profit attributable to parent company of Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) from 2022 to 2024 was 1.05 billion yuan, 1.6 billion yuan and 1.93 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 36%, and the valuation level of similar companies, pe30x was given in 2022, with the corresponding share price of 30.4 yuan. It was covered for the first time, and "buy" rating was given.
Risk tips: the overseas epidemic has worsened, the rise of battery prices is less than expected, the domestic substitution of high-capacity batteries is less than expected, the sales volume of electric tools has declined, the industry competition has intensified, and the goodwill has been impaired.
