\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Event: Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) released the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the revenue was RMB 6.406 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.12%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.029 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.50%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.033 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.50%, close to the median value of the previous performance pre increase announcement. Q4 single quarter revenue was 1.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.84%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.39%.
Special a + products drive the improvement of structure. 1) By products, the revenue of special a + products / Special A / A / B / C / D products in 21 years was 4.165/17.14/2.65/1.38/0.84/03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 35.7% / + 14.1% / + 4.4% / – 13.3% / – 9.8% / – 51.8%, the revenue share of special a + products increased 5pct to 65%, and the sales volume / average price increased by 21.9% / 11.3%. Among them, the revenue of V Series in the first three quarters of 21 years increased by 120%, and it is estimated that the revenue increase of V Series in 21 years will double, accounting for about 10% of Guoyuan brand, The introduction of four opening replacement drives the volume and price of K series to rise simultaneously. 21 years Baijiu sales / average price increased by 0.76%/24.3% over the same period, the average price increase of the upgrading of the structure was the main driver. 2) By region, the revenue inside / outside the province in the past 21 years was 5.933447 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.4% / 36.1%, accounting for 93% / 7% respectively. The revenue of Huai’an / Nanjing / Southern Jiangsu / Central Jiangsu / Yancheng / Huaihai in the province was 12.7/15.8/8.5/8.7/7.6/610 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18.0% / 19.8% / 32.5% / 32.9% / 15.0% / 44.9%. The growth momentum of Huai’an and Nanjing in the advantageous areas was not reduced, and the relatively weak Southern Jiangsu and central Jiangsu grew brightly. By the end of 21, there were 415 / 636 dealers inside / outside the province, The net increase was 15 / 88, and the investment promotion work outside the province continued to be promoted. 3) In a single quarter, the revenue of 21q4 special a + category / special a category was RMB 625 million / 350 million, with a year-on-year increase of 22.3% / 14.4%, and the revenue of special a + category accounted for 58.7%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7pct.
Profitability increased and cash flow indicators were bright. 1) The gross profit margin of 21 years was 74.61%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5pct, mainly due to the optimization of product structure. Among them, the gross profit margin of special a + products / special a products was 82.60% / 66.20%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.25/2.43pct. 2) The sales expense rate of 21 years was 15.10%, down 2pct year-on-year. It is estimated that the main reason is the decrease of advertising expenses, the rate of management and R & D expenses was 4.5%, down 0.4pct year-on-year, and the net interest rate of 21 years was 31.66%, up 1.07pct year-on-year. 3) In the year of 21, the sales collection was 8.556 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 48.45%, which was significantly higher than the revenue growth. By the end of 21, the contract liabilities + other current liabilities were 2.336 billion yuan, an increase of 1.097 billion compared with the end of 20 and 1.128 billion compared with the end of 21q3. It was mainly related to seasonal factors and positive channel payment at the end of the year. In the 21st year, the net cash flow from operating activities was 3.024 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 170%.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Q1 of 22 years started well (the company expects 22q1 revenue / net profit attributable to parent company to be about 3 / 1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 25% / 24%). It was announced in April that the change of chairman was completed, and the equity incentive scheme is expected to speed up the implementation. Considering the profit increase brought by structural optimization, the net profit forecast for 22-23 years was raised to 2.51/3.07 billion yuan (compared with the previous forecast + 2.5% / + 4.2%), the net profit forecast for 24 years was increased to 3.66 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS was 2.00/2.45/2.92 yuan, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price was 22 / 18 / 15 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales of V series and Sikai are less than expected, and the market competition in the province is intensified.
