\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 180 Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) )
Events
On April 18, 2022, the company announced that the oral nucleoside covid-19 drug vv116 developed by juntuo biology, the holding subsidiary of the company, in cooperation with Suzhou Wangshan wangshui, as a potential respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) inhibitor, was published online in nature’s journal signal transduction and targeted therapy. It was found that vv116 had excellent antiviral effect on multiple RSV sensitive cell lines.
Comments
Vv116 showed excellent antiviral effect on multiple RSV sensitive cell lines in mouse model. (1) Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the main cause of severe lower respiratory diseases in children under 5 years of age worldwide, causing 3.2 million hospitalizations and 120000 deaths worldwide every year. In addition, almost all children can be infected with RSV before the age of 2, and individuals can be repeatedly infected with RSV for life, which poses a great threat to infants, the elderly and people with low immune function. At present, only palizumab is approved in the United States as a preventive treatment for the prevention of severe lower respiratory diseases in children at high risk of RSV. However, palizumab is only effective in preventing hospitalization for about 50% of individuals, and the cost is high. In view of the disease burden, RSV has been the focus of vaccines and antiviral drugs for more than 50 years. (2) In the mouse model, vv116 showed high oral bioavailability, good tissue distribution and significantly better antiviral effect than ribavirin, and could alleviate the pathological damage of lung tissue. This study provides a valuable clinical candidate for the treatment of RSV infection.
As a potential covid-19 small molecule drug, vv116 has released phase 1 clinical results and is rapidly advancing phase 3 clinical practice. (1) According to the total revenue, PD-1 revenue and milestone payments of Lilly and coherus disclosed in the annual report, it can be calculated that the sales commission of covid-19 neutralizing antibody of the company after listing in the United States has exceeded 1 billion yuan; In addition to Lilly’s milestone payment of nearly $200 million, in 2021, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) earned more than $2 billion on covid-19 neutralizing antibody. (2) The company’s covid-19 small molecule research and development is also in a clinical leading position in China. Vv116 is the oral deuterated version of redcivir. In 2021, vv116 became the first covid-19 small molecule oral drug approved for emergency use in Uzbekistan; At present, it is in the global multi center phase 3 clinic and has completed the administration of the first Chinese subject. (3) Another potential covid-19 small molecule drug, vv993, is a small molecule drug with the same target as Pfizer paxlovid for 3CL protein inhibition, but does not need ritonavir and can take effect alone.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We maintain the company’s profit forecast. The company’s sales revenue in 2022 / 23 / 24 is 31.5/45.9/7.56 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is -285123/866 million yuan. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Risks such as R & D process, sales volume failing to meet expectations after entering medical insurance and lifting the ban on restricted shares.
