\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 481 Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) )
Event: the company issued the first quarter report of 2022.
Accelerate the promotion of silicon wafer business, and the performance increased significantly year-on-year. In 2022q1, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.734 billion yuan, an increase of 299.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 121 million yuan, an increase of 340.8% year-on-year. It mainly benefited from the performance growth brought by silicon wafer shipment after Baotou phase I production capacity was put into operation. Q1 silicon wafer shipment was 0.9gw, with an estimated contribution of about 700 million yuan. As well as the significant year-on-year increase of shipment of reduction furnace, skid, heat exchanger and other equipment under the background of high prosperity of polysilicon expansion.
Start the expansion of phase II 20GW monocrystalline silicon wafer production and accelerate the transformation process to professional silicon wafer suppliers. The construction of phase I 20GW silicon wafer project of the company is nearing completion, of which 5 Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) single crystal furnaces (equivalent to about 8GW annual capacity) of single crystal plant 1 have been fully put into operation, and single crystal plant 2 has been gradually put into operation. In addition, the company has started the investment and construction planning of phase II project (20GW). It is expected that the company will realize the annual capacity of 20GW + as soon as possible in 2022 and 40gw + in total in 2023.
Silicon wafers are in hand, with full orders and high delivery time. The company has reached cooperation with Tongwei, aixu, Trina Solar, Atlas and other manufacturers. The total signed long silicon wafer / silicon rod orders have reached 63.686 billion yuan, and the orders on hand are full. At present, the demand for large-size silicon wafers in the industry is relatively high. The company is positioned as a supplier of large-size silicon wafers. It is expected that with the gradual increase of production capacity, the shipment of silicon wafers is expected to rise quarter by quarter. Considering the significant repair of the current profits of the silicon wafer industry, The company’s silicon wafer business performance is high and can be expected to increase.
Silicon material entered the second wave of production expansion, and the company’s reduction furnace orders continued to grow, promoting the release of performance. Recently, silicon material has ushered in the second wave of large-scale production expansion. Daquan, Xinyi solar energy, Hesheng, Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , Zhonglai and Zhonghuan have all arranged large-scale production expansion plans. Since the beginning of 2021, the company has signed reduction furnace equipment orders of more than 3.5 billion yuan, and the reduction furnace orders are expected to remain high. According to the company’s annual report, in 2021, the company’s reduction furnace output was 524 sets and its inventory was 167 sets. The company’s equipment business mainly adopts the order sales mode. It is expected that the inventory equipment will be delivered successively according to the capacity construction progress of downstream customers. At the same time, considering the peak period of polysilicon production expansion this year and next year, the company’s reduction furnace business is expected to achieve substantial growth.
The photovoltaic business realizes differentiated layout and strategic coordination with the industrial chain. From the perspective of photovoltaic industry layout, the company currently covers polycrystalline silicon reduction furnace, silicon wafer and module links, which is just complementary to the businesses such as silicon materials, battery chips and power stations that have not been laid out. In the positioning of the industrial chain, the company avoids business overlap and competition with upstream suppliers and downstream customers to the greatest extent, and realizes the greatest degree of coordination with industry chain participants. In addition, the company’s customers of energy-saving and water-saving equipment cover many power enterprises and have great pressure and demands for new energy transformation. Therefore, it can realize coordination with the company’s component business and make full use of existing customer resources.
Profit forecast: the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 912 million, RMB 1627 million and RMB 2.158 billion from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to 18.3, 10.2 and 7.7 times of the valuation, and maintain the rating of “overweight”.
Risk tip: the industry demand does not meet expectations and the company’s production capacity does not meet expectations.
