\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Event: the company announced that on April 15, Reliance Industries Limited (Reliance Industries) reported to Maxwell Technology Pte, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company Ltd. (Singapore Maiwei) issued letter of commitment (LOC). According to the above LOC agreement, Reliance Industries plans to purchase 8 Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) heterojunction battery production equipment from Singapore Maiwei, with a capacity of 600MW / piece, a total of 4.8gw. The total purchase amount exceeds 50% of the company’s audited operating revenue in 2021, but does not reach 100%.
Rec is one of the first manufacturers to mass produce hjt in the world. After the richest man in India purchased rec, he strengthened the production expansion of hjt. Rec is a manufacturing company of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries, components and polycrystalline silicon headquartered in Norway, with its operating headquarters in Singapore. The company has three manufacturing bases – two producing Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) polysilicon in Norway and one producing Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries and components in Singapore. Rec is one of the first manufacturers in the world to mass produce hjt batteries. On October 10, 19, REC announced that its 600MW heterojunction battery production line in Singapore began mass production. The mass production line mainly uses meyerberg’s PECVD, PVD and Maiwei’s screen printing equipment. The project investment is about 150 million US dollars (including the investment in component equipment, etc., and the actual investment in hjt battery equipment is 800-1 billion yuan / GW). On November 30, 2021, REC and Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) signed an order for 400mwhjt whole line, and adopted 210 half piece technology, with a design capacity of about 11200 half pieces / h.
According to energyworld, on October 10, 2021, Reliance Industries Co., Ltd., owned by Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest man, announced the acquisition of rec from China Bluestar (Group) Co., Ltd. at a cost of US $771 million. The conversion efficiency, output power and power generation of hjt and other high-efficiency battery technologies have been significantly improved compared with perc technology. In some regions with high temperature or complex terrain, such as North America, the Middle East, Japan and India, the market demand for hjt components is high. Benefiting from the increase in demand and the further decline in the cost of hjt kwh, Chinese and foreign manufacturers have increased the capacity of hjt battery. In the future, REC battery centers will be mainly located in Singapore and India. It is expected that rec will add nearly 6Gw (including India and Singapore) in 2022 and plan to reach 15gw of hjt capacity in 2023 (including 10GW in India and 5GW in Singapore). Rec component centers will be in France, the United States, India and Singapore.
Rec4 The corresponding orders for 8GW production expansion are expected to be about 2 billion, the annual hjt production expansion is expected to be 20-30gw, and the leading manufacturers are expected to obtain about 7 billion orders. The undisclosed amount of the 4.8gwrec India hjt order signed by the company this time. According to the prediction of 400 million / gwhjt line, the amount of this order is close to 2 billion yuan. According to Maiwei, the expansion scale of hjt in the industry is expected to reach 20-30gw in 2022, a significant increase year-on-year compared with 8.1gw in 2021. According to the calculation of 25gw production expansion, 400million /gw whole line investment and Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) 70% market share, the order of Maiwei hjt is expected to reach 7billion yuan in 2022. Compared with the expansion scale of hjt, the market pays more attention to the progress of hjt parity. If hjt achieves cost parity with perc within this year, the industry is expected to usher in a large-scale expansion of hjt, the leading manufacturer, in 2023. At present, cost reduction nodes including smbb and large capacity equipment have been realized. We expect that the hjt parity nodes in 2022 mainly include microcrystalline PECVD mass production, silver slurry localization, half bar sheet, silver clad copper localization, PVD target optimization, etc. Microcrystalline PECVD is the first step in the 22-year hjt parity rhythm. The mass production data of positive surface microcrystalline PECVD is expected to reach about 25%, and the efficiency is expected to reach 25.5% after superimposing back surface microcrystalline (double-sided microcrystalline). Previously, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) has released more than 24.5% of the small batch data of single-sided microcrystals. It is expected that the stable and mature mass production microcrystals data of Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) and Huasheng new energy will be released in the near future, and the relevant targets of the industrial chain are expected to benefit.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 890 / 14.4 / 2.04 billion, corresponding to pe56 / 35 / 24 times, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the iteration of photovoltaic technology is less than expected, the research and development of new technology is less than expected, and the market competition intensifies the risk.
