\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 036 Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) )
It is estimated that the profit attributable to the parent company of 22q1 is about 50-60 million. The company plans to release its 2021 annual report and 22q1 quarterly report on April 26. Due to the weak demand for downstream consumer electronics, we expect the company's mobile phone optical business to remain stable year-on-year; At the same time, the growth expectation of vehicle optics remains unchanged, and the revenue in the year of 21 / 22 / 23 is estimated to be RMB 350 / 8.6 / 1.79 billion. We expect that the company's annual revenue in the year of 21 / 22 will be 10.48/12.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39% / 15%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 240 / 420 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 43% / 78%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 will be 50-60 million. Considering the continuous climbing of the vehicle business, we believe that this performance will meet the market expectations.
Wait for the profit inflection point to appear. In terms of business, 1) vehicle optics: the automobile supply chain is disturbed by the epidemic, and the end customers are slightly affected in the short term. With the continuous listing of new models of key customers in the second half of the year and the production of Hefei project, the company's vehicle lens and module will continue to be in large quantity, and the equity incentive target is expected to be successfully achieved (the revenue of vehicle optics in 22 / 23 / 24 is not less than RMB 5 / 10 / 1.5 billion), driving the improvement of overall profitability, We expect that the contribution rate of the company's vehicle optical business to the overall gross profit will increase from less than 10% in 21 years to 19% / 32% in 22 / 23 years. From the perspective of net profit, the contribution of vehicle optical business in 21 years is expected to reach 1 / 4. 2) Mobile phone optics: affected by the sluggish demand in the smart phone market, the mobile phone optics business remains stable (it is expected to remain at about 2.5-2.6 billion yuan in 22 years). 3) Others: we expect the HD wide-angle business to maintain stable growth, and the stripping of touch display related business will take 23 years.
The target price is 27 yuan / share, maintaining the rating of "better than the market". From a short-term perspective, the mobile phone optical business remains stable, and the gross profit margin of touch display integration business is at the bottom; From the medium and long-term perspective, the vehicle optical business continues to climb and increase its profit contribution. We believe that the company's profit momentum will change more positively in 23 years. Taking into account the weak downstream consumer demand and the supply chain disturbance caused by the epidemic, we adjusted the profit forecast accordingly. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 / 22 / 23 will be 240 / 4.2 / 570 million yuan respectively (the change range is 0% / - 7% / - 8%), and the valuation time point will be extended to 23 years. 50x2023pe corresponds to the target price of 27 yuan / share in the coming year (down 10%, the original valuation basis is 70 times that in 2022), maintaining the rating of "better than the big market".
Risk tips: 1) the risk that the expansion of on-board optical production is less than expected; 2) The risk that the gross profit margin of on-board optics is lower than expected; 3) The risk of declining profits of traditional business; 4) The risk that the stripping progress of traditional business is less than expected.
