\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 87 Zhejiang Tiantie Industry Co.Ltd(300587) )
The company predicted a y] high growth in performance in the first quarter, and the high boom of the company's main business, rail transit vibration and noise reduction, continued to materialize. The company recently released a performance forecast for the first quarter. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 115137 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 51.11% - 80.01%.
1. The core logic of the company's current high growth: from the perspective of the industry, on the one hand, benefiting from the rapid development of "urban agglomeration and metropolitan area", the demand for inter city and municipal construction has increased. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the national development and Reform Commission has long made it clear that 10000 kilometers of new construction has been started in Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Dawan district alone. From last year to this year, Chengdu Chongqing, Shandong Peninsula, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Beibu Gulf and other urban agglomerations have been approved or planned frequently, The development progress of "Urban Agglomeration" has been significantly accelerated; On the other hand, benefiting from the expectation of increasing the penetration rate of the industry, the National People's Congress deliberated and revised the legislation "noise pollution prevention and control law", which was implemented in June, and incorporated the vibration and noise reduction of rail transit into the scope of legislation. The requirements for noise reduction of rail transit based on environmental protection considerations have been continuously improved, which is expected to drive the further increase of the penetration rate of the industry. The company has been deeply engaged in the vibration and noise reduction industry of track structure for decades, with rich types of vibration and noise reduction products and constantly developing new products. Meanwhile, with the development of the company's building vibration reduction and isolation business and lithium salt business in the future, it can also create new performance growth points.
2. The company plans to collect lithium resources and improve the layout of lithium industry chain. The company recently announced that it plans to transfer 21.74% equity of Tibet Zhongxin held by Jia Lixin with its own funds, and the equity transfer price is 500 million yuan. After the completion of the transaction, Zhejiang Tiantie Industry Co.Ltd(300587) will become the second largest shareholder of Tibet Zhongxin, with Jia Lixin as the largest shareholder, holding 60.76%. The target company owns bangaco (Lake 3), Nagqu bange County, Tibet, of Tibet Zhongxin Investment Co., Ltd., which has not been developed and utilized on a large scale. The company has a license to mine 1 million tons per year. As of October 31, 2019, the proven ore volume of magnesite (332) is 463237 million tons, and magnesite is a salt lake solid mineral. The mining method is open-pit mining, in which the industrial index MgO has an average grade of 39.32%. In addition, there are surface brine (332 + 333) resource reserves, with a volume of 24113 × 103m3, including 6452 tons of LiCl, 109978 tons of KCl and 18541 tons of B2O3. The average grade of B2O3 in surface brine is 694.65mg/l, 251.82mg/l and 0.40% of KCl.
1) evaluated by water magnesite, the transaction cost performance is outstanding. This transaction is only based on the verified value of water magnesite, and the transaction price is agreed. Other minerals are not priced. Therefore, the transaction cost performance is very high, which is conducive to safeguarding the interests of shareholders of listed companies.
2) the guaranteed reserve of lithium chloride is 190000 tons. According to the terms of the announcement, if the total lithium chloride resource reserves (332, 333) within the mining right held by Tibet Zhongxin are less than 191400 tons after subsequent supplementary exploration and reserve verification, the shares of Tibet Zhongxin held by China Railway shall be repurchased at the price of "transaction price + interest" without any conditions. According to the verification report on the resource reserves of boron and magnesium polymetallic ore in bangaco, (3 Lake) mining area, bange County, Tibet Autonomous Region, according to the metallogenic law of Salt Lake ore, the grades of B2O3, KCl and LiCl in the shallow brine of the mine are basically higher than those of surface brine, with great resource potential and large storage space.
3) based on the original lithium chemical project, extend to the upstream and improve the layout of lithium industry chain. Changgeely new energy, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, has invested in the project with an annual output of 50000 tons of lithium salt, 3800 tons of alkyl lithium series and their supporting products in Longqiao chemical park, Lujiang high tech Zone. The project has been officially started on March 7, 2022 and is planned to be gradually put into operation in 2023. This acquisition aims to invest in the upstream raw materials of lithium compounds, which can effectively help the safety and stability of the source of raw materials.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is the leader in the vibration and noise reduction industry of rail transit. With the rapid development of "Urban Agglomeration", the construction of intercity and municipal rail transit is expected to accelerate, showing a high boom for a long time, and the company will continue to benefit. In recent years, the company has opened up lithium salt business, distributed lithium chemical production capacity through changgeely, and distributed lithium salt upstream resources through partial transfer of Tibet Zhongxin, which will produce good synergy. We expect the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be 302 / 466 / 681 million and EPS to be 0.48/0.74/1.08 yuan respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk factors: the development of "Urban Agglomeration" is less than expected, the mining of Zhongxin lithium mine in Tibet is less than expected, and the changjili lithium salt project is less than expected.
