\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 832 Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) )
Core view
In 2021, the performance increased by 25%, and the increase of average price drove the growth of gross profit margin. In 2021, the company's revenue was 2.72 billion yuan, + 18%, and its net profit was 620 million yuan, + 25%. Cagr5 of revenue and net profit were 26% / 36% respectively, with steady and high growth for many consecutive years. The annual sales unit price increased by 15%, driving the gross profit margin to increase by 2.8 percentage points to 76.7%. The annual expense rates were basically the same. During the period, the marketing of Olympic Games, media and entertainment increased, and the marketing expenses increased.
In the first quarter, the company's performance exceeded expectations and achieved an increase of 41%. In the first quarter of 2022, under the repeated epidemic in China in March and the pressure of last year's high base, the company achieved a 30% increase in revenue to 810 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease in gross profit margin of 1.1 percentage points to 75.5%, an overall improvement in expense rate of 3.4 percentage points, and a 41% increase in net profit to 210 million yuan. We believe that good brand reputation, accurate positioning of high-end people, excellent product quality and excellent channel operation ability are the key competitiveness of the company's counter cyclical growth.
Business analysis: brand strength continues to improve, and inventory has improved significantly. 1) Inventory: the company used olai and online channels to process seasonal goods. At the end of 2021, the inventory increased from 50% to 59% in one year, and the inventory turnover days in 2022q1 decreased from 62 days to 298 days month on month. 2) Brand strength: in 2021, the company increased the marketing of "Tokyo Olympic Games + high-speed rail media + China Central Television + spokesperson", and the brand popularity and reputation increased significantly. The average Baidu Index of " Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) " in the whole year reached 3145, a year-on-year increase of 140%, and the number of VIP members exceeded 700000.
Outlook: the impact of the recent epidemic is small, and there is broad space for expanding stores in the medium and long term. 1) Impact of the recent epidemic: about 1.4% / 2.8% of the company's stores are located in Shanghai / Jilin Province. Recently, Jilin Province has achieved social clearance 0, and the impact is controllable. 2) Medium and long term: in the future, the company will dig deep into the high-end communities of the first and second tier cities and sink the market to the third and fourth tier cities with rapid growth. It is expected that the company's offline store space is expected to reach 1500 ~ 2000, with broad medium and long-term growth space.
Risk tips: repeated epidemics, significant impairment of inventories, damage to brand image and systematic market risk.
Investment suggestion: steady performance, strong brand momentum, optimistic about medium and long-term growth space. Under the pressure of weak retail environment and high base in the second half of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, the company still achieved rapid profit growth and showed the robustness of performance. As a high-end brand of boom track, the company has cultivated excellent brand strength through early accurate positioning, high-quality marketing, differentiated channel operation and excellent product strength. With the continuous improvement of brand influence, the company has broad growth space in the future. As the performance in the first quarter exceeded the expectation, the profit forecast was slightly raised. It is estimated that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 790 / 980 / 1.14 billion respectively (compared with RMB 750 / 900 million from 2022 to 2023), an increase of 27% / 23% / 19% at the same time. It will be given 20 ~ 21xpe (maintained) in 2022, and the reasonable valuation will be slightly raised to RMB 29.2 ~ 30.6 (compared with RMB 27.6 ~ 28.9) to maintain the "buy" rating.
