\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 531 Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) )
The annual performance was slightly in line with expectations, and the centralized delivery of towers was ushered in the fourth quarter. In 2021, the annual revenue was 8.172 billion yuan (+ 1%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.310 billion yuan (+ 25%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 1.075 billion yuan (+ 10%). In the fourth quarter, the company ushered in the centralized delivery of towers, with a single quarter revenue of 2.952 billion yuan (+ 12%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 278 million yuan (+ 16%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 287 million yuan (+ 13%). Affected by the sharp rise in the prices of medium and heavy sector, resin and glass fiber, the annual sales gross profit margin was 22% (- 1PCT). Affected by the time rhythm of raw material price rise and procurement exposure period, the sales gross profit margin decreased to 17.6% in the fourth quarter.
The rise in steel prices affects the annual gross profit margin, and the profitability is expected to stabilize and repair. The company achieved 630000 tons of tower sales (+ 6%), 892 sets of blades (- 16%) and 61 sets of molds (+ 49%). Affected by the sharp rise in steel prices in the first half of the year, the annual gross profit margin of tower sales was 12.07% (- 5.24pct.), The gross profit margin stabilized and rebounded in the fourth quarter. Affected by the unilateral rise of glass fiber price and the sharp fluctuation of resin price in the whole year, the gross profit margin of leaf sales in the whole year was 16.89% (- 4.3pct.). Considering that the current steel price trend is relatively stable and the resin price has fallen sharply, it is expected that the profitability of manufacturing business will usher in an inflection point.
The performance of the power station is brilliant and contributes to the annual profit increment. The company achieved electricity sales of 2.09 billion kWh (+ 47%), power generation revenue of 1.051 billion yuan (+ 48%), contributed gross profit of 735 million yuan (+ 56%), and played an important role in performance growth. By the end of 2021, the company has accumulated 884mw grid connected wind farms, Xinghe 500MW wind farm is expected to be grid connected by the end of 2022, and Shayang 600MW wind farm is expected to be started this year.
Demand oriented production expansion, “manufacturing + zero carbon” two wheel drive opens up long-term space. The company actively promotes the “resource for order” mode to realize the benign interaction between manufacturing and power generation business. Focusing on the steady expansion of power station resources, Sheyang and German marine engineering base are expected to be put into operation at the end of 2022 and the first half of 2023 respectively, and a new round of “two seas” layout is expected to be launched. The company will accelerate the development of zero carbon business in the mode of “asset light”.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects production and delivery; The price of raw materials continues to rise; The construction progress of the downstream power station did not meet expectations.
Investment suggestion: lower the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating.
The company has a leading position in the field of onshore wind power tower. Through the “resource for order” mode, the company has increased the market share, made progress in the development of new customers in the blade business, ushered in a large amount of molds under the trend of large-scale units, and the zero carbon business provides the company with stable profits and cash flow. The company has good growth. In view of the continuous slight rise in steel prices since 2022 and the repeated epidemic has had a certain impact on the company’s production and delivery, we lowered the original profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.404/19.082358 billion yuan (originally predicted to be 1.8262129 billion yuan in 2022 / 2023), with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2/35.9/23.6% respectively, diluted EPS of 0.78/1.06/1.31 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 14.1/10.4/8.4 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
