\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 090 Jiangxi Jovo Energy Co.Ltd(605090) )
Event:
The company announced the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 18.488 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.42%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 620 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.27%; In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 7.017 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 393 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.66%.
Comments
The international LNG price is high, and the annual performance of 21 years is under pressure
In terms of revenue, the company achieved an operating revenue of 18.488 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 107.42%. The main reasons for the high increase in revenue include: 1 Price rise: affected by factors such as demand growth, geopolitics, unsealing of the epidemic, extreme weather, low natural gas inventories in Europe, insufficient supply of wind and solar power generation, obstruction of “beixi-2” ventilation and so on, the structural mismatch between international natural gas supply and demand became prominent in 2021, and the price continued to rise. The sales unit price of LNG and LPG products of the company increased significantly, of which the annual average sales price of LNG was 4876.4 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 72.4%; The annual average sales price of LPG was 4403 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 45.8%; 2. Sales volume improvement: in the whole year of 21 years, the sales volume of LNG and LPG of the company was 2.026/1.773 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 55.8% and 12.4% respectively.
The high cost put pressure on the performance in 21 years, and the Q1 performance in 22 years increased by 40.66% year-on-year
Due to the asymmetric fluctuation of cost and selling price, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 620 million yuan in the whole year of 21 years, a year-on-year decrease of 19.27%. On the cost side, the annual LNG unit cost of the company was 4622.3 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 109.1%. On the price side, China’s LNG price fell rapidly from 7419 yuan / ton to 4712 yuan / ton in the month from the end of November to the end of December, with a decrease of 36.5%. The mismatch between the cost side and the price side reduced the annual comprehensive gross margin of LNG to 254.1 yuan / ton, a decrease of 58.2%. Although the cost side of Q1 in the year of 22 was still facing upward pressure, the company gave full play to the advantages of dual gas sources and the whole industrial chain. At the same time, with the help of the window period of relevant LNG terminals of the national pipe network company, the company realized the landing of LNG resources in different places, bucked the trend and expanded the business scale, realizing the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 393 million, with a year-on-year increase of 40.66% and a month on month increase of 3571%.
Expand land gas resources, explore the southwest market, and prospectively layout a new hydrogen energy track
In terms of resource expansion, under the guidance of the LNG Development Strategy of “landing, reaching the terminal and leaving South China”, the company announced the purchase of 100% equity of Sichuan Sentai energy and 28% equity of Sichuan Huayou Zhonglan energy in January and April 2022 respectively. After the acquisition, the company formed a dual gas source pattern of “Sea gas + land gas” to reduce the fluctuation of single gas source; At the same time, the market radiation scope will be rapidly expanded from South China to southwest and northwest regions, and indirectly cut into the automobile filling market to broaden the field of terminal application; In terms of hydrogen energy layout, in December 2021, the company reached cooperation with juzhengyuan to jointly promote the development and market-oriented operation of hydrogen energy related technologies through joint venture by using the hydrogen produced by juzhengyuan PDH unit.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the performance of Q1 in 22 years increased significantly, with significant advantages in dual gas sources and the whole industrial chain. It is optimistic about the annual performance repair of the company and raised the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.04/13.7/1.58 billion yuan (1.03/1.296 billion yuan before 22-23 years), corresponding to 12.5/9.5/8.2 times of PE, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips: the downstream demand growth of LNG and LPG is less than expected, the international oil and gas price fluctuates more than expected, and the construction progress of transport ships is less than expected
