\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 128 Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) )
Key investment points
Event: Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) announced the results of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022. The company achieved an operating revenue of 24.67 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 75.0% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 840 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.7%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 830 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 61.1%. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 6.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 40.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36.0%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38.8%.
The prosperity of international air and sea freight forwarding business continued. In terms of traditional freight forwarding business, the company continues to promote product diversification and improve the proportion of direct customers, so as to build its core competitiveness under the high boom of international air transportation and international shipping business. In terms of air freight forwarding business, the company continued to build its own capacity products, promoted the normal operation of fixed flight products, and added logistics services in Singapore, Bangkok and other places. In 2021, the air freight forwarding business volume was 354000 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 2.6%. Combined with the high prosperity of international air freight and the company’s continuous promotion of direct passenger ratio, the air freight forwarding business revenue was 6.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.2%, and the single ton revenue was 19000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.1%, The gross profit is 870 million yuan, the gross profit per ton is 2467 yuan, and the gross profit margin is 12.8%, year-on-year + 2.5pp. In terms of international shipping business, the company strengthened resource integration and network coordination. Under the high prosperity of shipping business, the company realized 1.035 million TEUs of shipping freight forwarding business, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.9%. Superimposed on the high prosperity of shipping freight rate, the company realized an international shipping operating revenue of 11.73 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 142.7%, a gross profit of 740 million yuan and a gross profit margin of 6.3%, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.5pp.
Extensive M & A performed well, with high growth in cross-border logistics business. In terms of cross-border e-commerce logistics, the company continued to strengthen product construction, expand cross-border e-commerce platforms and independent station customers, optimize the layout of overseas warehouses, strengthen extension, and cooperate with Hua’an Runtong, Shenzhen Chuang Chuang, Jiacheng international and other companies. In the whole year, the cross-border air transportation business volume was 62000 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 16.4%, the cross-border sea railway business volume was 16000 TEUs, a year-on-year increase of + 218.6%, the China Europe train was 18000 TEUs, a year-on-year increase of + 276%, and the China Europe Kaban was 9000 tons; The operating revenue was 3.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 98.9%, the gross profit was 490 million yuan, and the gross profit margin was 13%, a year-on-year increase of -4.5pp. Cross border logistics business has become the third largest business pillar of the company, with revenue accounting for 15.3% of the company’s total gross profit and gross profit accounting for 20% of the company’s total gross profit. In 2021, the company acquired Jiacheng international logistics, and the volume of cross-border e-commerce logistics small package business of Jiacheng international reached 105000 tons in 2021, with a net profit of 48.28 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24.5%.
Seize the opportunity of made in China to go to sea, endogenous + extension, and consolidate logistics resources. With the deepening of customers’ demand for all links and all products, the performance ability of the whole logistics chain will be the core of competition in the future. In February 2022, China logistics group completed the integration, held 45.8% equity of the company, and simultaneously introduced China Eastern Airlines Group, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) and China Merchants Group as strategic investors. After the integration, the company will continue to promote various cooperation. In addition, with the transformation of Chinese enterprises from traditional OEM mode to brand going to sea, cross-border transportation will enjoy the industry dividends brought by the transformation and upgrading of made in China to created in China and Chinese brands. The company will strengthen extension mergers and acquisitions, make up for business weaknesses, and grasp the industry dividends brought by manufacturing going to sea.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. We are optimistic about the company’s extension to make up for its business shortcomings, endogenous consolidation of freight forwarding resources, and under the sea bonus of made in China. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 23 / 24 will be 1.1 billion yuan, 1.3 billion yuan and 1.4 billion yuan, with EPS of 0.84 yuan, 0.98 yuan and 1.11 yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 13X, 12x and 10x respectively in 2022 / 23 / 24, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the freight rate fluctuates sharply, the growth of cross-border e-commerce is less than expected, and the cooperation is less than expected.
