\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 976 Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) )
Key investment points
Event: Q1] company achieved revenue of 920 million yuan (+ 9.1%) in 2022; Net profit attributable to parent company: 90 million yuan (+ 26%); Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 80 million (+ 20.4%); The investment income of the company’s associates and joint ventures was 40 million yuan (+ 31.9%).
Revenue side: the growth of products in the hospital is bright. 1) The rapid growth of products in the hospital has contributed to the main income of the industrial end. Among them, baotaikang, estradiol and Shengxue granules have achieved rapid growth. The rapid growth of the inner end of the hospital is mainly due to the company’s strengthening of the construction of the sales team and the addition of more sales personnel and regional managers. In addition, the academic promotion and the quality of sessions have also increased a lot, laying a good foundation for the rapid breakthrough of varieties. 2) Affected by the maintenance of the price system of 30 bags of Longmu Zhuanggu granules, the outside end of the hospital decreased slightly, but 60 bags of Longmu Zhuanggu granules increased. Longmu Zhuanggu Granule outside the hospital is expected to achieve substantial growth throughout the year.
Profit side: the sales expense rate decreased, and the investment income contributed by Dapeng pharmaceutical increased significantly. In 2022, the company’s sales expense rate was 31.8% (- 4.5pp), management expense rate was 5.52% (+ 1pp), financial expense rate was – 0.1% (- 0.13pp), and R & D expense rate was 1.87% (+ 0.89pp). The sales expense rate is well controlled, and the abundant book capital leads to the decrease of financial expenses. The company’s investment income was 40.61 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%, mainly due to the year-on-year increase in investment income brought by its subsidiary Dapeng pharmaceutical. We expect that it is mainly due to the substantial increase in demand caused by the cultivation of bezoar in vitro, which is the core raw material of some anti epidemic products.
Channel side: product channel reform has brought rapid growth to multiple channels. The OTC side increased advertising investment and distribution rate. The annual advertising cost is expected to invest 360 million yuan, an increase of 100 million yuan. The hospital actively carried out evidence-based medicine research and academic marketing. It is expected to continue to increase the construction of marketing team in the future. In 2021, there will be more than 1000 salespeople, strengthen terminal coverage, and accurately control channel inventory through marketing digital construction. In 2022, Longmu Zhuanggu Granule will be promoted to the hospital, and biantong capsule and Jianmin Yanhou tablet will be promoted to the outside of the hospital, so as to realize the further growth of products. In 2022, the OTC revenue target is expected to achieve 25% rapid growth, of which biantong capsule is expected to exceed 100 million yuan of OTC sales. The growth rate in the hospital is expected to further accelerate. It is expected that the sales breakthrough in the hospital is expected to be achieved in 2022q2 with the promotion of a new round of in-hospital bidding of Longmu Zhuanggu granules.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.59 yuan, 3.29 yuan and 4.24 yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 26.1% in the next three years and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales growth of Longmu Zhuanggu Granule was lower than expected, and the sales growth of in vitro cultured bezoar was lower than expected.
