\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 966 Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) )
Key investment points
21q4 profit is under pressure, and 22q1 is expected to improve month on month
In the 21st year, the company’s machine-made paper business achieved an output of 3135100 tons (year-on-year + 3.71%) and a sales volume of 3125900 tons (year-on-year + 0.28%). In terms of business, the main types of white cardboard / carton board / cultural paper achieved a revenue of RMB 12.508/15.90/1.574 billion in 2021 (year-on-year + 13.63% / + 20.90% / + 61.12%), the corresponding sales volume was 225.22/41.56332200 tons (year-on-year -0.77% / – 1.33% / + 47.45), and the corresponding gross profit margin was 28.20% / 3.11% / 4.84 (year-on-year + 5.94pct / + 6.38pct / + 6.62pct); The proportion of white cardboard income in 21 years was 77.18%. The average price of 21q4 white cardboard was 6021 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 11.19% and a month on month increase of – 2.46%. The weakening of paper price and the sharp rise of energy cost (the average price of Q4 coal + 25.69% month on month) suppressed the profit performance of 21q4. Due to supply side disturbances such as UPM strike, shortage of transport capacity and the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the prices of 22q1 coniferous pulp and broad-leaved pulp entered the upward channel (up 35.22% and 28.10% respectively compared with the low point of 21q4); With the recovery of demand in Southeast Asia and other places, the industry’s exports showed marginal growth. In January of 22, the export volume of whiteboard paper was 283300 tons, with a month on month increase of + 18.65%, and the supply and demand pattern continued to improve; The price of white cardboard increased by 9.86% compared with the beginning of 22 years, superimposed with the decline of energy costs, and the 22q1 profit is expected to improve month on month. Considering the excellent industry structure, Cr4 concentration is nearly 90%, and the pulp is still in the upward channel, which supports the continuous rise of white cardboard prices and is optimistic about the company’s profit performance in 22 years.
Good profit performance and sufficient cash flow
(1) the gross profit margin of 21a company is 22.93% (+ 5.87pct), which is mainly due to the high prosperity of 21h1 white cardboard industry; In terms of expense rate, the company’s period expense rate is 8.16% (- 0.83pct), the sales expense rate is 0.39% (+ 0.13pct), and the management + R & D expense rate is 6.73% (+ 2.09pct), which is mainly due to the significant increase of the company’s R & D expenses, and the financial expense rate is 1.04% (- 3.04pct); Corresponding to the company’s net interest rate of 10.48% (+ 4.51pct), the profit performance is beautiful. (2) At the end of the year, the company’s inventory was 2.095 billion yuan (an increase of 591 million yuan compared with the beginning of the period), mainly due to the increase of raw material preparation; The fixed assets were 10.292 billion yuan (a decrease of 1.061 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the period), and the construction in progress was 936 million yuan (an increase of 536 million yuan compared with the beginning of the period), which was caused by the construction of high-grade information paper projects; At the end of the year, the company’s long-term loan was 1.596 billion yuan (a decrease of 984 million yuan compared with the beginning of the period), and the asset liability ratio was 63.51% (- 5.20 PCT), which was due to the repayment of long-term loans. (3) In the 21st year, the net operating cash flow of the company was 3.645 billion yuan, an increase of 49 million yuan over the same period of the previous year.
Orderly delivery of production capacity to help the company grow
At present, the company’s annual design capacity of white card paper is 2.15 million tons. With the technical transformation of the existing paper machine and the implementation of the 1 million ton white card paper project invested and built by Jiangsu Bohui, the company’s white card capacity will reach 4 million tons in the medium term. At the same time, the company’s 450000 ton high-grade information paper project is also under construction. The production capacity is put in order to open the company’s medium-term growth space, and the production and sales are expected to continue in large quantities.
Profit forecast and valuation
As the leader of white cardboard, the company has clear medium-term growth and is expected to further increase its market share with the production capacity. It is expected that the company will achieve revenue of 16.289 billion yuan, 17.971 billion yuan and 19.246 billion yuan respectively in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 0.08%, 10.33% and 7.09%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.462 billion yuan, 1.564 billion yuan and 1.738 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 14.30%, 6.97% and 11.17%. The corresponding PE was 7.97x, 7.45x and 6.71x respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
Raw materials rise, demand falls short of expectations, paper price rise falls short of expectations, and industrial capacity release exceeds expectations
