\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 28 Yealink Network Technology Co.Ltd(300628) )
Recommendation logic: 1. The trend of Enterprise IP communication is clear, and the penetration rate of SIP phones continues to increase. The market scale will reach 10 billion yuan in 2023 and 7% CAGR in five years. The company's SIP phone market share ranks first in the world. With the company's increased penetration in the high-end market and the continuous optimization of product structure, the volume and price of phone products will rise at the same time. 2. Multifactor resonance will accelerate the expansion of UC market, and the CAGR will reach 15% in the next 8 years. The company has a good development trend in China's government and enterprise business. At the same time, it is deeply bound with global platform giants. The revenue of conference products has reached 80% CAGR in three years, which will fully benefit from the industry dividend. 3. Seizing the market opportunity, the company launched the production line of personal office terminals, multiplexed telephone audio and video technology and global channel advantages, which is expected to rapidly increase the volume in the short term and maintain a doubling growth rate.
SIP phones have ranked first in the global market share for four consecutive years, penetrating the high-end market and realizing the simultaneous rise of volume and price. Since 2017, the company's global market share of SIP phones has ranked first for four consecutive years. In 2020, the global market share reached 34.3%, which is expected to continue to increase in the future. At the same time, the company's high-end market penetration has achieved remarkable results, and the sales proportion of T5 series high-end phones has continued to increase. Compared with entry-level phones, this series has increased the price by 254.3%, effectively improving the gross profit level. The company has made breakthroughs in the market development of major customers such as operators and North American ITSP, and the sales share has increased significantly. In addition, the high-end smart phones launched in cooperation with Microsoft and zoom continue to be recommended by the platform, with broad growth space.
The full set of "cloud + end" solutions opens the global market, binds platform giants and enjoys the dividends of the industry. Enabled by the epidemic catalytic superposition technology, UC evolves from communication tools to management tools, and the market expansion is accelerated. It is estimated that the global UC market will reach US $113.81 billion and CAGR will reach 14.5% in 2028. The company has a full set of "cloud + end" UC solutions, and provides multiple sets of industry solutions such as party construction, anti epidemic and education in the Chinese market. It has made good progress in government and enterprise customers or become a new growth point of the company. In the international market, the company is deeply bound with cloud platform manufacturers such as Microsoft, zoom and Tencent conference, so as to maximize the dividends of the industry. It is estimated that the long-term space for the company to sell hardware from the three platforms can reach US $2.34 billion, and the large volume of conference products can be expected.
Mixed office catalyzes the demand for office terminals, and technology + channel reuse promotes the rapid growth of business. Mixed office and unified communication stimulate the expansion of office terminal demand. The global business headset shipment will reach 71.53 million units in 2027, the market scale will reach US $4.44 billion and CAGR will reach 12.2%. The company locates in the global small and medium-sized enterprise market, reuses the advantages of audio and video technology and channels, and plans to cover the market demand through the rapid launch of new headset products. With profound technology accumulation and strong brand power, the company's office terminal business grew by 247.9% in 2020, and is expected to maintain rapid growth in the next five years.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 29.8% from 2021 to 2023. With reference to comparable companies in the industry, the company is given a valuation of 38 times in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 90.6 yuan, and is given a "buy" rating for the first time.
