\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 567 Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) )
The company released its annual report for 2021: in 21 years, the company achieved revenue of 33.033 billion yuan (+ 32.29%), net profit attributable to parent company of 1.516 billion yuan (+ 9.74%), deducting net profit not attributable to parent company of 1.200 billion yuan (- 16.10%); Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 8.979 billion yuan (+ 13.19%) in a single quarter, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 209 million yuan (- 47.51%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 258 million yuan (- 50.36%). At the same time, the company announced that it plans to invest in the cogeneration project with an annual output of 700000 tons of hot grinding fiber and 1.8 million tons of packaging paper in Suzhou.
Key investment points
21q4 high cost and profit pressure, waiting for improvement in peak season
According to the industry quotation data, the average price of 21q1 / 21q2 / 21q3 / 21q4 carton board was 4930 / 4960 / 5104 / 5170 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 14.65% / 27.93% / 14.13% / 11.16%; The average price of corrugated paper was 4074 / 3994 / 4165 / 4248 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 12.60% / 24.85% / 15.06% / 13.10%; On the cost side, the average price of Q4 national waste is 2431 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 13.55%). Due to the contraction of supply and sea freight, the average price of foreign waste is also at a historical high, with an average price of Hpf Co.Ltd(300350) US dollars / ton, squeezing the profit performance of high-end container boards; The average price of coal was 971.71 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 52.02%). Corresponding to the sales volume of 5.8203 million tons of base paper in 21a period, the sales volume of Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 in 21 years was 126.08/155.11/152.111487300 tons respectively, and the corresponding net profit per ton was 376 / 342 / 199 / 140 yuan / ton. The dual cost pressure of raw materials and energy, the superimposed sales performance is flat, and the profit performance of 21q4 is under pressure. The average price of 22q1 carton board was 4883 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year ratio of - 0.95%, a month on month ratio of - 5.55%, and that of corrugated paper was 3856 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year ratio of - 5.35%, a month on month ratio of - 9.23%. The corresponding sales volume of base paper of the company was 1305300 tons (year-on-year + 3.52%), and the average price was 398657 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 1.43%). During the period, the demand was flat, the price weakened, and the profit continued to be under pressure. Recently, the high-level operation of raw materials and the shutdown and maintenance supply of large factories decreased, and the price of supporting carton board.
Cost control is good, and production capacity investment ensures growth
(1) the gross profit margin of 21a company is 12.19% (-4.55pct). In terms of expense rate, the company's period expense rate is 9.94% (- 1.16pct), sales expense rate is 1.07% (- 0.30pct), management + R & D expense rate is 6.76% (+ 0.14pct), financial expense rate is 2.11% (- 1.01pct), and the expense control is good; The corresponding net interest rate of the company is 4.59% (- 0.94% PCT). (2) At the end of the year, the company's inventory was 3.809 billion yuan (an increase of 1.424 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the period), mainly due to the increase of 947 million yuan in finished products compared with the beginning of the period; Fixed assets were 22.209 billion yuan (an increase of 4.509 billion yuan over the beginning of the period), construction in progress was 4.965 billion yuan (a decrease of 321 million yuan over the beginning of the period), and the company's medium-term production capacity was put in order to ensure growth; At the end of the year, the company's long-term loan was 5.590 billion yuan (an increase of 638 million yuan compared with the beginning of the period), and the asset liability ratio was 64.81% (+ 2.72 PCT). (3) In the 21st year, the net operating cash flow of the company was 1.969 billion yuan, an increase of 799 million yuan over the same period of last year.
Seek the strategic transformation of packaging industry and strive to serve valuable customers
The company is committed to becoming a "global green packaging integrated solution service provider that creates long-term value for customers" and building an industrial chain integrated solution service capability. During the period, the company established a key customer center, which has the ability to provide global customers with overall solutions from design, demonstration, proofing, testing to batch application. On the basis of strengthening existing key customers such as Midea, Dell, Haier and Budweiser, the company has developed high-quality key customer orders for new tracks such as target, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Jingdong group, Yizi, L'Oreal and dewu, with remarkable results and will continue to make efforts in the future.
Actively expand the ability of industrial chain integration and orderly capacity expansion
During the period, the company established a renewable resource recovery business segment to promote China's renewable resource recovery. At the same time, the company actively arranged overseas high-quality long fibers. During the period, the annual output of 400000 tons of recycled pulp in Southeast Asia and 320000 tons of recycled pulp in the UK and the Netherlands will also be put into operation in the first half of 2022, so as to ensure the supply of high-end box board raw materials and highlight the ability of industrial chain integration. In the future, the company's production capacity will expand in an orderly manner. Guangdong Shanying 1 million ton papermaking project is expected to be completed and put into operation in mid-2022. Zhejiang Shanying 770000 ton papermaking project and Jilin Shanying phase I 300000 ton corrugated paper and 100000 ton straw pulp project are expected to be completed and put into operation at the end of 2022 and 2023 respectively, opening up the company's medium-term growth space and optimistic about the double improvement of the company's market share and efficiency.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company has a sound layout of raw materials, orderly expansion of production capacity and the packaging industry is in the stage of strategic transformation. It is expected that the company will achieve revenue of 39.359 billion yuan, 45.547 billion yuan and 47.325 billion yuan respectively in 22-24 years, with a year-on-year increase of 19.15%, 15.72% and 3.90%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.541 billion, 1.770 billion and 1.994 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.67%, 14.89% and 12.61%, corresponding to PE of 9.04x, 7.87x and 6.99x respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The rise of raw materials, the demand is lower than expected, and the rise of paper price is lower than expected
