\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 256 Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) )
The best performance of listing in 2021, with both volume and price rising, helped the performance in the first quarter of 2022 exceed expectations again
The company released its 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 24.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 64.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.003 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 274.4%; In 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 9.398 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 70.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 175.67%. The actual profit in the first quarter exceeded the upper limit of the previous performance pre increase range by 153 million yuan. The coal, gas and coal chemical industry has maintained a high boom, and the market sales price has strengthened. The company's production work was carried out in an orderly manner, the capacity utilization rate increased steadily, the downstream demand remained strong, and the volume and price rose together, driving the company's single quarter performance to exceed expectations and optimistic about the company's annual performance. We maintain the profit forecast for 20222023 and add the profit forecast for 2024. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 is expected to be RMB 9.269/11.639/12.821 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 85.3% / 25.6% / 10.2%; EPS is estimated to be 1.41/1.77/1.95 yuan; Based on the latest closing price, the corresponding PE is 6.1 times / 4.9 times / 4.4 times respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
The volume and price of products in the main business increased simultaneously, and the performance in 2021 was fully released
Natural gas sector: in 2021, the revenue was RMB 11.857 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 42.14%. LNG sales volume was 4.57 billion m3, with a year-on-year increase of + 22.3%, of which Qidong trading gas sales volume was 3.68 billion m3, with a year-on-year increase of + 30.7%; Turnover was 3.66 billion m3, a year-on-year increase of + 22.5%. Coal sector: the company achieved a revenue of 8.639 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 135.52%, which is the main driving force for the company's annual performance to exceed expectations. In terms of output: the output of raw coal was 102887 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 76.8%; The output of upgraded coal was 3.6648 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 11.1%. In terms of sales volume, the sales of raw coal was 150263 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 121.1%; The sales of upgraded coal was 4.9228 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 35.3%. According to the announcement, Q4 achieved coal sales of 5.9065 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 99.9%, which is the main engine of Q4's single quarter performance. Coal chemical industry: in 2021, the revenue will reach 4.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +85.7%. The sales volume of methanol was 1144200 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 9.3%; The sales volume of coal based oil products was 610500 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 14.7%. In terms of price, it shows an upward trend as a whole. The average market sales prices of LNG, coal, methanol and coal based oil products are + 56%, 60% - 100%, 72% and 59% year-on-year.
Coal, gas and chemical industry continued to prosper, with outstanding performance in the first quarter of 2022
Natural gas sector: the company's LNG sales from January to March were + 9.5% year-on-year, of which Qidong LNG sales were + 16.7% year-on-year; Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of overseas natural gas broke a record high, the company flexibly adjusted its business strategy, and the maritime entrepot trade brought high profits. Coal sector: from January to March, the foreign sales volume increased by about 29.69% year-on-year; The sales price of the company's coal market in each segment increased by about 47-164% year-on-year in March, which was basically the same month on month. Coal chemical industry: methanol: the sales volume from January to march was - 1.75% year-on-year, but the average sales price in the Chinese market was + 17.91% year-on-year, effectively offsetting the impact of the slight decline in sales volume, and the overall profit increased. Coal based oil products: as the soaring oil price drives the continuous rise of China's refined oil price, coal tar is favored for its substitutability, and the demand increases rapidly. From January to March, the sales volume increased by about 15.87% year-on-year, and the average sales price of coal tar Market in Xinjiang increased by + 173.43% year-on-year.
The growth of each sector can be expected, and the dividend proportion is higher than expected
Coal sector: the production capacity of baishihu mining area has increased from 8 million tons to 25 million tons, the exploration certificate of Malang coal mine has been obtained, and it is expected to build a production capacity of 15 million tons during the 14th Five Year Plan period; LNG sector: the current turnover is 3 million tons. The phase IV project is expected to be completed and put into operation in August 2022, and the turnover capacity will reach 5 million tons, which will be expanded to 10 million tons during the 14th Five Year Plan period; Coal chemical industry: 400000 tons of ethylene glycol has been put into trial production and is expected to be fully put into operation in the second half of 2022. The company plans to pay a dividend of 10.4% per share at the closing price of 2024. The company's accumulated cash dividend from 2019 to 2021 was 3.327 billion yuan, accounting for 125.76% of the average net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in recent three years, meeting and exceeding the relevant provisions on cash dividend.
Risk warning: the economic recovery is not as expected; Energy prices fell sharply; The progress of new capacity lags behind expectations
