This week, the real estate policy recommended by light industry and benefited from this week is still expected to relax, and is optimistic about the valuation and repair of the home sector in the post real estate cycle.
(1) recommended combination of customized home: Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ;
(2) recommended / beneficial objects of software Home: Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Minhua holdings, Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) , and Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ;
(3) recommended target of packaging plate: Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) .
Industry update: the marginal improvement of real estate policy, and the valuation of home sector is expected to be repaired
Event: on January 6, according to the financial Associated Press, at present, the bank has informed some large high-quality real estate enterprises that the relevant M & A loans are no longer included in the relevant indicators of the “three red lines” for the debt bearing acquisition of the projects of the enterprises in danger. Previously, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued the notice on doing a good job in M & a financial services for risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises, encouraging banking financial institutions to steadily and orderly carry out real estate projects and purchase loans in accordance with the principles of legal compliance, risk control and commercial sustainability, and supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire projects of key real estate enterprises. Comments: the introduction of this policy is expected to benefit the M & a market, resolve market risks and promote the liquidation of the real estate industry with the help of high-quality real estate enterprises, which is conducive to restoring the confidence of the real estate market. In December, the sales data of the top 100 real estate enterprises still declined year-on-year, but improved month on month. In addition, many cities have recently issued policies such as house purchase subsidies and reducing the mortgage interest rate of the first house, which is expected to further stimulate the improvement of the demand side of real estate. We believe that the real estate policy has gradually bottomed out, and the home sector affected by real estate pessimism is expected to further repair the valuation, Superimposed on the previous promotion of the subsidy policy for furniture and home decoration to the countryside, the home market is expected to continue to expand, and the leading software home companies with less impact on the fluctuation of real estate data and higher degree of product standardization will benefit more.
Focus on company updates this week
Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) : Overall: we predict that due to the impact of the high base in December 2020 and early customs clearance, the overall order in December is expected to decline year-on-year, with a compound growth rate of about 15% from 2019 to 2021. Split: we predict that kitchen cabinets, wardrobe and bulk are greatly affected by the base, with negative growth year-on-year; We expect the year-on-year growth of the whole package to be 60% – 70% and the annual growth to be about 90%, and continue to maintain a high level of growth;
Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) : we predict that the overall number of orders received in December will increase year-on-year. Yang Xin, the new vice president of marketing, injects vitality into the company, integrates the previously fragmented products and space, and launches the whole customized playing method. It is expected that the company will have 500 stores with new customized products before 315 in 2022. At the same time, it will carry out in-depth marketing reform and continue to promote the expansion of stores of all brands and categories, which is expected to bring continuous improvement to Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) performance;
Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) : we predict that the number of cabinets receiving orders will increase in single digits in December, the number of wardrobe will increase by 30-40%, and the bulk goods will be flat year-on-year;
Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) : we predict that the shipment in December will increase by about 20% year-on-year, including high single digit growth in cabinet retail, more than 50% growth in wardrobe retail and more than 10% growth in bulk;
Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) : we predict that the overall order receiving in December will increase by about 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate of domestic sales is higher than the overall growth rate;
Minhua Holdings: we predict that the overall growth in December will be more than 20%, the growth rate of domestic sales will be higher than the overall growth rate, and the number of export units will increase.
Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) : we predict that orders received in December will increase by nearly 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate of retail independent brands is higher than that of the whole.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials is rising, the epidemic situation is repeated, and the competition for bulk business is fierce.
