Optimistic about the profit release opportunities brought by the price increase and upgrading of beer and baking semi-finished products
From January 4 to January 7, the food and beverage index decreased by 3.8%, ranking 21st in the primary sub industry, about 1.4pct lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Among the sub industries, health products (4.0%) and meat products (2.8%) are relatively leading. Catalyzed by the event that the United States identified Helicobacter pylori as a carcinogen, the health products sector rose higher. This week’s beer price increase is expected to rise, and the price logic is gradually being fulfilled. Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) in 2021, the upgrading trend of product structure is obvious, the growth rate of medium and high-end products is significantly faster than that of low-end products, and the structural improvement is still the biggest focus in the future. At present, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) main brand has formed different echelon products, and the channels of ultra high-end and high-end products are changing positively. Apart from the opening of the big customers, we also seek cooperation between famous Baijiu dealers to promote the development of high-end products. We are relatively optimistic about the overall investment opportunities of the beer sector, and high-end should be the main investment logic and profit source of the industry. Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) recently, attention has increased, mainly due to the good performance of medium and high-end product U8, the overall progress of China Resources beer’s recent high-end development, and the Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) upgrade strategy has been clear. Considering the cost pressure, the price increase expectation of subsequent industries is stronger. It is suggested to focus on the investment opportunities for the release of enterprise profits brought by the upgrading of beer plate structure.
Baking semi-finished products have entered the stage of price increase. Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) the announcement plans to increase the price of some categories by 3% – 8%. The price increase range mainly takes into account that the price rise trend of upstream baking grease and other raw materials has not ended, and we believe that the possibility of continued price increase due to excessive cost pressure will not be ruled out in the future. Part of the production capacity of Henan plant has been started, mainly involving major categories such as cassava and doughnuts, and the release rate of production capacity is progressing smoothly. We estimate that the company’s goal of freeze baking business in 2022 is still positive and is expected to maintain high-speed growth. The short-term cost pressure of the company is still large, and it is expected to alleviate the cost pressure after the price increase. Shanghai Hi-Road Food Technology Co.Ltd(300915) also disclosed that it plans to increase the product price by 5% to 8%. We believe that with the price increase of Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) and Shanghai Hi-Road Food Technology Co.Ltd(300915) companies, the baking oil business accounting for 80% of the revenue of Namchow Food Group( Shanghai) Co.Ltd(605339) is expected to open the space for price increase, and the upstream and downstream price transmission can smoothly improve the certainty of price increase. The baking semi-finished products industry still maintains a high outlook. With the gross profit margin repair brought by the price increase of baking oil raw materials business and the high boom demand of downstream frozen baking, it is optimistic about the performance of baking semi-finished products enterprises in 2022.
Recommended combination: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288)
(1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) cancel the unpacking policy of Feitian Maotai liquor, and the price difference between the original box and bulk bottle is expected to narrow, which is conducive to the development of marketization. The price increase of Maotai liquor is expected to rise. Considering the supply of base liquor, the planned revenue target is expected to accelerate in 2022. The company has room to move calmly in terms of volume and price, and the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future is smooth. (2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) recently, the wholesale price has rebounded, the channel inventory is low, and the shipment is stable compared with the previous period. Considering the changes of quotas inside and outside the plan and the promotion of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , it is expected to achieve double-digit growth at a high rate in 2022. (3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) the rapid growth shows that the company’s fundamentals are strong, and the company’s change of command will usher in a new direction of development. The company has profound brand heritage, mature mechanism and team, and it is a long-term trend to realize the return of the brand to the high-end. (4) Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) the price increase has a positive impact on costs and channel profits. The condiment industry is slowly repaired, and the company also shows a recovery trend. Considering the price increase, it is expected to return to the normal growth level in 2022. Proposed layout and long-term holding.
Risk tips: economic downturn, food safety, fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected recovery in consumer demand, etc.
