Key investment points
General view and recommendation of the industry: Securities Companies: frequent policies, optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① Recently, a series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) are conducive to the industrial chain of ficc, wealth management and large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center is rising: the wealth management business continues to grow, and channels, products and investment advisers benefit deeply; The scale of derivatives has maintained rapid growth in recent years, new products have been launched one after another, the superposition system has been continuously standardized, and ficc constitutes the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increments. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (2015-2016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies. Insurance: wait for the industry to pick up and pay attention to the reform process of listed insurance enterprises. ① The negative effects of the comprehensive reform of property insurance and auto insurance have fully emerged, and the stronger the industry pattern is. One year after the comprehensive reform of auto insurance, the premium growth of major insurance enterprises is expected to pick up. At the same time, in the long run, the industry competition pattern will be optimized, and the leading insurance enterprises will benefit deeply, further strengthen the advantages of scale, channel and brand, and create competitive barriers. ② Due to the contradiction between supply and demand in the life insurance industry in the short term, the pressure on the liability side is significant. However, in the long run, with the promotion of channel transformation, the aging trend of population and the strategic requirements of "healthy China", the life insurance industry is facing profound reconstruction: the gradual formation of medical care ecology of insurance enterprises, with the increasing demand for health care, drives the industry to a virtuous cycle of development and growth, and is expected to promote the trend improvement of both ends of industry assets and liabilities. Ranking of recommended sectors of Soochow non bank: securities, insurance, recommended stock portfolio [China stock market news], [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ], [China Property Insurance] and [far east Hongxin].
Important changes and comments in the industry: 1) the CSRC on the pilot provisions on stock market making trading business of securities companies on the science and Innovation Board (Draft for comments). We believe that: ① the introduction of market maker system is an important measure to promote the development of science and innovation board, and we expect the "effect" of market making to be expected; ② Market makers carry out in a pilot way, and put forward higher requirements for the "threshold" of entering the market in terms of net capital, securities source and risk management, which is conducive to stabilizing market fluctuations and preventing helping rise and fall; ③ The market maker system is expected to enhance market activity, and leading securities companies are expected to benefit in depth. 2) The China Foundation Association issued the investigation report on the status of investors in the national public fund market. We believe that: ① in the era of wealth management, Chinese residents\' assets are gradually migrating to financial assets; ② In the value chain of wealth management industry, the importance of product end is becoming increasingly prominent; ③ Investors are still troubled by "choosing the base and timing", and fund investment advisers have great prospects. 3) The cbcirc issued the measures for the administration of financial leasing companies and project companies. We believe that: ① the Measures specify that financial leasing companies and domestic professional subsidiaries can set up project companies to carry out financial leasing business in domestic free trade pilot zones and other regions. At the same time, it is emphasized that the leasing company should strengthen business penetration management and comprehensive risk management, and further enhance the implementation ability of risk management of the project company; ② In the future, with the continuous promotion of financial leasing regulatory policies, China's financial leasing industry will continue to improve, give full play to its characteristic functions and improve the efficiency of serving the real economy.
Risk tips: 1) the macro economy is not as expected; 2) Policy convergence inhibits industry innovation; 3) Market competition intensifies risks.
