Zhou's view: risk is releasing, short-term layout point
(1) the new energy sector has been greatly adjusted recently, and our analysis is as follows. (a) Reason: it is mainly the concentrated embodiment of the contradiction between supply and demand in the medium cycle. It is expected that there will be a short-term low before the Spring Festival; Factors reversing the trend include: the price of lithium carbonate has reached a high level, the U.S. policy is expected to fall, and the short-term performance is expected to fall. (b) The short term has reached the time point of layout, and photovoltaic is more clear: from the recent changes in industrial volume and price, the reduction of photovoltaic module price to a relatively low point is expected to contribute to the positive feedback of downstream demand, which is expected to be reflected in January.
(2) recently, the market has different opinions on the new energy policy. Our views are as follows. (a) The policy's determination to protect the development of new energy in the long term will not change: through repeated study of the recent central economic work conference, its core goal of "deeply promoting the energy revolution and accelerating the construction of an energy power" in the next few decades, the core of the revolution is new energy (partial long-term), and the guarantee of a power is coal (short-term); "Create conditions to realize the transformation from" dual control "of energy consumption to" dual control "of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible", which has actually shown that the energy consumption requirements have been reduced in the short term (for short-term stable growth), which is conducive to the release of capacity in the middle and upper reaches of new energy. (b) Improve the market-oriented guarantee level through policies: the recent national energy work conference proposed to "strengthen the guarantee of policies and measures, accelerate the implementation of renewable energy substitution actions, and improve the regulation capacity of the power system", which is also intended to consolidate the development environment in 2022 (protect the power grid and power station). (c) Improve the level of market-oriented development through the policy environment: the central economic work conference proposed that "micro policies should continue to stimulate the vitality of market subjects and further promote the implementation of fair competition policies; strengthen the spirit of contract; reform policies should activate the driving force of development and steadily promote the reform of natural monopoly industries such as power grid". Photovoltaic, wind power and electric vehicles have the ability of parity. We have always stressed that the long cycle of this rise is a large cycle of market-oriented development. The core of large fluctuations lies in the acceleration of supply and demand cycle and penetration.
(3) promising directions of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other main tracks in the coming year: (a) core growth: the best companies in the high barrier links, such as silicon materials and lithium batteries, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) benefit; (b) Post cycle: energy storage, hydrogen energy, equipment, charging and replacement, auxiliary materials, etc; (c) New technologies: granular silicon and n-type batteries in photovoltaic, flat wires, high-voltage systems and 4680 batteries in electric vehicles, poly GCL energy, Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) etc.
Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) comments: high price and high yield promote the profit growth of polysilicon, and the battery feed is stable and good
The performance maintained high growth in 2021, in line with expectations. The company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of 8-8.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 122% - 136%; It is expected to realize a net profit of 8-8.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 232% - 253%. The performance growth comes from the high demand for high purity silicon in the downstream, its own high production capacity and the steady operation of other businesses.
Sector and company tracking
New energy automobile industry: the growth rate of new energy heavy truck sales is rising rapidly, and heavy truck power batteries are competing
New energy vehicle company: Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 890-920 million in 2021
Photovoltaic industry level: China's largest industrial and commercial photovoltaic asset transaction has been completed, and the "central enterprise + private enterprise" cooperation is becoming mature
Photovoltaic company level: Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) it is proposed to establish a subsidiary, Meichang diamond technology, through joint venture
At the level of wind energy industry: Chinese complete machine manufacturers export to Japan and usher in the first order
Risk tips: the development of new technologies exceeds expectations, the demand is lower than expectations, and the competition in the new energy market is intensified
