Key investment points
Market last week: light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market. From January 4, 2022 to January 7, 2022, the Shanghai composite index decreased by 1.65%, the Shenzhen component index decreased by 3.46%, and the light industry manufacturing index decreased by 0.18%, ranking 13th among the 28 Shenwan industries; The rise and fall of light industry manufacturing index sub sectors from high to low are: papermaking (+ 1.52%), household light industry (+ 0.99%), packaging and printing (- 3.01%).
Furniture: Policy: the real estate market remains stable, and the valuation repair of the home industry is at the right time. Recently, many ministries and commissions said that they would promote the construction of affordable housing and support the normal financing of real estate enterprises. The pessimistic expectation of the real estate industry chain has been improved. Last week, the customized home sector (2022 / 1 / 4-2022 / 1 / 7) rose by 2.73%. The valuation of the home industry began to repair and continued to be optimistic about the future valuation repair space of the furniture sector. In terms of customization, we recommend [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] and [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] in combination with the proportion of bulk business income, accounts receivable risk and valuation level. We suggest paying attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] and [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ]. In terms of software, it is the first to accelerate the promotion of independent brands and sink the leading [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] in channel construction; Meanwhile, [ Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings] are recommended.
E-cigarette: aspire yijiate updated the operation of fy2021, large overseas factories returned to the Chinese market, and the Chinese e-cigarette market continued to expand. On January 3, 2022, aspire updated its prospectus. Fy2021's revenue was $93.9826 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.93%; The net profit was USD 547000, a year-on-year decrease of 97.14%. China's revenue share in the company's total revenue increased from 0.9% in fy2019 to 18.5% in fy2021. Overseas e-cigarette manufacturers with deep layout in the field of atomized e-cigarette returned to China to promote product iteration and technological progress of China's e-cigarette industry. 2022/1/6 and Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) should continue to increase the HNB flavors and fragrances track layout. With the gradual improvement and implementation of various policies of China's e-cigarette industry, the e-cigarette market continues to mature, and the medium and long-term development prospect of the industry has been gradually confirmed. We continue to recommend [smore international]; It is suggested that we should pay close attention to the close cooperation with China tobacco, the layout of flavors and fragrances, the continuous improvement of the new tobacco territory, and the [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ] with high price performance ratio. Enterprises with thick slurry flake production technology [ Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) ].
Papermaking: waiting for demand improvement. In terms of price, as of January 7, 2022, the price of carton board paper was 4904 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 7 yuan / ton; The price of corrugated paper was 3884.4 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3 yuan / ton; The price of white cardboard was 5871 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 228 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The price of whiteboard was 4905 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 38 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The price of double copper paper is 5380 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan / ton; The price of double offset paper was 5612.5 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. The price of wood pulp was 6144.6 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 105 yuan / ton. In terms of inventory, as of last Thursday (January 6, 2022), the weekly chain ratio of pulp inventory decreased, and the paper mills successively reduced load or shut down near the end of the year; The inventory of carton paper and cultural paper increased year-on-year, and the market maintained stable operation.
Risk tip: power rationing policy affects production capacity, raw material price fluctuations, intensified Sino US trade friction, weak downstream demand, etc. Note: except for special notes, all currencies in the full text are RMB.
