Key investment points
Core view of this week: in December 2021, the sales volume of heavy trucks was 53000, a year-on-year increase of – 52%. In 2021, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy truck industry reached 1.391 million, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%, the first decline in nearly six years. In the second half of 2021, the sales volume of China’s heavy truck market decreased significantly year-on-year due to the switching of national six emission standards, high industrial inventory and other factors; However, the concentration of leading enterprises increased. In 2021, the Cr5 share of heavy trucks reached 85.6%, 1.7pct higher than that in 2020. Among them, the market share of Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) and Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) enterprises increased by 1.5 and 2.4pct respectively, and the Matthew effect further appeared. With the passage of time, the negative impact of the national six emission upgrading has been gradually eliminated, and the reasons for the base number in the same period have been superimposed. We judge that the worst time of the heavy truck industry has passed. We recommend three main lines:
(1) independent brand leaders with strong new product cycle: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Byd Company Limited(002594) .
(2) parts enterprises closely related to the electric intelligent industrial chain with high growth certainty: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Guangdong Senssun Weighing Apparatus Group Ltd(002870) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) .
(3) heavy truck enterprises with increasing market share and expected to usher in a performance inflection point: Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) .
According to the data of the passenger Federation: it is estimated that 109000 vehicles are retailed on the fifth Sunday of December, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, and the performance is relatively average; On the fifth Sunday, 102000 vehicles were wholesale, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, and the trend was relatively weak. According to the preliminary internal statistics of the passenger Federation, the overall retail data in December reached 2.157 million, with a daily average of 69000, a year-on-year decrease of 6% and a month on month increase of 19%; In December, the overall wholesale data reached 2.282 million, with a daily average of 74000, a year-on-year decrease of 1% and a month on month increase of 6%. In recent months, the terminal inventory is low, the promotion of manufacturers is tightened, which affects the retail growth, and the situation will gradually improve in the future.
According to the data of the first commercial vehicle, in December 2021, the sales volume of heavy trucks was 53000, a year-on-year increase of – 52%. This year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy truck industry reached 1391000, a year-on-year increase of – 14.1%. The sales volume of Sinotruk Jinan Truck Co.Ltd(000951) heavy trucks of major auto enterprises in December was 12000, a year-on-year decrease of 60%, and the monthly sales achieved six consecutive titles; In 2021, the annual sales volume was 285000 vehicles, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 3% and a market share of 20.5%, an increase of 2.4pct over 2020.
Important information: Mobileye launched 176tops computing power integrated chip eyeq ultra; Qualcomm launched snapdragon ride vision system, an open platform for automatic driving; Jidu automobile simucar has successfully integrated high-speed and urban dual domain intelligent driving; Krypton cooperated with Mobileye to build L4 automatic driving vehicle; Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) reached cooperation with Qualcomm based on the fourth generation Xiaolong cockpit platform; Sony set up an electric vehicle company; BMW releases suspended giant screen and changeable body.
Important announcement: Byd Company Limited(002594) : the company sold 93945 new energy vehicles in December, a year-on-year increase of + 226%; From January to December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 603783, a year-on-year increase of + 218%; Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) : the company produced 267977 passenger cars in December, a year-on-year increase of + 21.4%; The sales volume of passenger cars was 233671, a year-on-year increase of + 11.8%. Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) : the company produced 162960 vehicles in December, a year-on-year increase of + 8.5%; The sales volume of automobiles was 162369, a year-on-year increase of + 8.2%; Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) : the company produced 670731 vehicles in December, a year-on-year increase of + 0.9%; Automobile sales volume was 660960, a year-on-year increase of – 11.5%.
Last week’s market review: last week, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose and fell by – 1.65%, – 3.46% and – 2.39% respectively. The auto sector fell 3.92%, underperforming the market. Among the automobile sub sectors, only the commercial passenger car sector recorded an increase, of which the commercial passenger car sector rose 1.39%; The automobile sector fell the least, down 0.89%, and the passenger car sector fell the most, down 6.08%.
New car listing statistics: four new cars were listed last week, namely SAIC Audi a7l 2.0T, aion LX plus, GAC Toyota fenglanda and Binzhi 1.5L CVT elite intelligent version.
Risk warning: the price of upstream raw materials rises sharply; Impact of shortage of automotive chips; Weak economic growth affects automobile demand.
