Price: steel prices rose this week. This week, the price of 20mmhrb400 thread was 4770 yuan / ton, up + 0.2% from last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 4950 yuan / ton, up + 1.4% from last week. Raw materials rose this week. Port iron ore prices rose this week compared with last week; Coke prices rose compared with last week; The price of scrap steel increased compared with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar fell this week. In terms of long-term process, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is – 37 yuan / ton, + 11 yuan / ton and – 4 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of EAF steel fell month on month this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the weekly ratio of rebar output increased, the weekly ratio of warehouses of the five steel plants increased, and the weekly ratio of social warehouses increased. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.28 million tons, up 236700 tons on a week-on-week basis, including 103900 tons of construction steel, 132800 tons of plate and 114100 tons to 2805300 tons of rebar. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars this week are 2460800 tons and 344500 tons respectively, and the cycle to ring ratio is + 109000 tons and + 5100 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties increased by 139400 tons to 8.872 million tons, the total inventory of steel mills increased by 54400 tons, of which the rebar social warehouse decreased by 45600 tons and the factory warehouse increased by 50700 tons. In terms of apparent consumption and steel turnover, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 2.709 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 31700 tons. The daily average of construction steel turnover this week is 147600 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 5.02%.
Investment suggestion: the 14th five year plan for raw material industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology clearly states that by 2025, the production capacity of key raw materials and bulk products such as crude steel and cement will only be reduced but not increased. Under the background of “double carbon”, the long-term limited steel supply is expected to continue. In the short term, with the Winter Olympics approaching, production restrictions in the north, especially in Tangshan, Hebei, are becoming stricter. During the event in Tangshan, class B iron and steel enterprises will stop production by more than 30% of the number of blast furnaces, and class C and D iron and steel enterprises will stop production by a larger margin. At that time, steel output is expected to decline significantly. On the demand side, the downstream enters the off-season of consumption. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 2.6773 million tons, and the daily average turnover of construction steel is 140600 tons, which is at a low level. However, from the perspective of lengthening the cycle, the steel market confidence has gradually warmed up under the expectations of real estate relaxation and stable growth policy of infrastructure construction. On the raw material side, the iron ore port inventory has been at a high level of more than 150 million tons since mid November 2021, the supply is relatively loose, the coal output gradually recovers under the stimulation of policies, and the probability of raw material price is relatively weaker than that of finished product end. On the whole, with the Winter Olympics approaching, the expectation of steel production restriction is becoming stricter. With the steady growth of real estate, infrastructure and other policy effects on the demand side, the focus of steel price may be gradually upward, superimposed with the loose supply of raw materials, and the steel profit is expected to improve. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel plate: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel plate: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Superalloy target: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly.
