Summary of this issue:
Exceeding expectations is a very important thinking, especially for those who are not deep in the industry, the concept of exceeding expectations can well avoid “self persistence”, that is, when we know the information and logic, a considerable part may have been reflected in stock pricing. Therefore, when the new researcher was writing a fundamental statement, the old company impatiently replied, “we need to capture marginal changes.” Indeed, marginal analysis is forcing us to think about what the market is thinking, and Graham will prompt appropriate attention to “Mr. market”.
The difficulty of exceeding expectations lies in which aspects of exceeding expectations is meaningful. I can\’t say exceeding expectations or lower than expectations at the slightest “wind and grass”. This is also a problem that I have been confused after accepting the concept of exceeding expectations. Until I found that Buffett actually looked beyond expectations, but rarely said. The elderly are concerned about value. When an event has an impact on the company, he will analyze whether it has an impact on the performance of the current year or on the value. Suddenly, value is the discount of a series of future cash flow expectations, not the discount of the performance of the current year or the next year. Therefore, if an event impacts a series of cash flow expectations, it will have an impact on the value, that is, it will “kill the valuation”, otherwise it will only “kill the performance”. In theory, the actual performance of a certain period does not affect the value, and naturally does not affect the valuation.
The reality is that the market can\’t tell whether it will “kill the valuation” after “killing the performance”. I expect it won\’t, but the market thinks it will. Therefore, “I expect your expectation” appears. Only in-depth research can break the judgment of homogenization.
Due to the incompleteness of information, the deduction based on induction often deviates significantly from the reality, so the market pays more attention to the current information with stronger certainty, and the later information has less weight in pricing. Price approval, inventory, movable sales, payment collection and dealer expectation have become the focus of market attention. For a moment, they exceed the expectation, for a moment, they are lower than the expectation, and for a moment, they are full of grass and trees. In depth researchers will explore what these short-term indicators represent, whether it is a one-time or permanent expected impact.
Lack of historical research is difficult to understand the Baijiu industry. Markets love to study the future, but for the Baijiu industry, the future research is a dead circle, and the future of research is thin. In essence, based on the in-depth understanding of the industry, talking about exceeding expectations often makes us “exceed” the wrong place. Therefore, for traditional industries like Baijiu, we must restore the historical background with historical materialism and understand the industrial trend, pattern and decision-making basis at that time. Otherwise, what Baijiu researchers can do in terms of the price of the Baijiu, and how to evaluate the core competitiveness of the liquor researcher?
The Baijiu industry is complex, and it is a piece of iron plate on the surface. In fact, the price attribute of each price belt is different from that of its operation, industrial trend and competition pattern. We can’t say that the development trend and rhythm of 300 yuan sub high-end and 800 yuan sub high-end are the same. Similarly, we can not simply say that the development law of Baijiu industry, which is still expanding over ten years ago, can be applied to nearly half of the capacity of the industry.
Therefore, the significance of deep research on Baijiu stocks is still very large. Even the depth of understanding of Moutai will affect the decision of abnormal fluctuations, not just that I know that the market knows Moutai is invincible, so it represents a style and a configuration. We have tried to restore the “deified story of changing from supply disadvantage to demand advantage” through the telephone meeting. At the same time, we have made a preliminary share on the impact of the sauce and wine industry on the pattern. Welcome to listen to the replay or make an in-depth one-to-one exchange.
Say Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) . Is the willing high growth reflected in the later stage of the industry development cycle? Is there any continuity in the collection of old merchants? What space is there for investment promotion? Can the operation of the secondary high-end higher price band exceed expectations? How much value does old wine have for Baijiu development? Can the willing old wine resources be regarded as a short-term non reproducible competitive advantage? What kind of historical background can form an inventory of high-quality old wine with rare Luzhou flavor? We communicate with the market while thinking. We welcome to discuss the value of giving up with us.
Risk factors: repeated epidemic risk; Food safety risks.
