Abstract
The start-up of photovoltaic modules has warmed up, and we continue to pay attention to the production capacity launch progress
Last week, the prices of 2mm and 3.2mm photovoltaic coated glass were 19.2 and 25 yuan / m2 respectively, with a month on month ratio of - 4% and - 1.96%. Manufacturers' inventory days were 29.45 days, down 2.58% from last week. Recently, the price of raw materials has continued to decline, the operation of component end has rebounded, and the demand has improved slightly; 12 kV was greatly connected to the grid, and the annual installed capacity may reach 60GW, exceeding the previous CPIA forecast. In the medium and long term, if the price of upstream raw materials falls in the future and driven by policies, the demand for photovoltaic installation is expected to continue to improve next year. On the supply side, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass last week was 41260 tons, which was flat month on month. The photovoltaic glass production plan for 22 years was large, and some promotion was general. We believe that the production capacity in 22 years still needs to be observed. Generally speaking, we believe that the average profit of the whole industry is currently or still at the bottom range, and some small kilns are unprofitable under the current price level. We judge that the downward space of price is limited. If the demand accelerates to improve in the future, the price of photovoltaic glass is still expected to rise periodically, and we continue to be optimistic about the logic of simultaneous rise in volume and price of leading companies in the future.
Float glass welcomes the traditional off-season, and the demand for 22q2 is expected to reach a small peak
Last week, the average price of float glass in China decreased by 2.68% month on month, and the demand was weak. Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 37.66 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.49 million weight boxes month on month, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The production capacity was flat month on month. Chongqing saide 400t / D production line is planned to be cold repaired on the 10th of this month. Last week, the focus of soda ash transaction on the cost side continued to move downward, but the prices of some fuel products rose, the prices of the original films decreased, and the profits of float glass decreased significantly. We believe that if the margin of real estate funds improves in the future, the demand side of float glass is still expected to rebound in the short term, and it is expected to usher in a small peak of completion in the first half of this year.
Continue to recommend photovoltaic glass faucets, and float faucets have medium and long-term investment value
The demand of photovoltaic industry is expected to improve marginally, the cost advantage of glass leader is significant, and the capacity end has high growth. It is recommended to [ Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ] (jointly cover with Dianxin), [Xinyi solar energy], and the dilemma reversal angle [ Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) ]. The price and profit of float glass are still going down in the short term, but the share price of float glass leader has been greatly adjusted. Considering the profit and valuation of float business in equilibrium and the additional growth brought by new businesses such as photovoltaic, we believe that the current float glass leader has good medium and long-term investment value, and continue to recommend [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ], [Xinyi Glass], [ Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ]; From the perspective of new glass materials, UTG original films break through the foreign monopoly, and the production and sales are expected to grow rapidly after domestic substitution. Continue to recommend [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ]. Under the logic of domestic substitution of medicinal glass, it is recommended to recommend the head enterprise of China borosilicate medicinal glass [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ].
Risk tip: the general rise of raw materials has delayed and exceeded expectations of downstream demand for real estate, photovoltaic and so on; Float production capacity and capacity utilization increased more than expected.
