Focus this week: Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) , Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) , First Tractor Company Limited(601038)
Core view of this week: continue to be optimistic about the opportunities of wind power, photovoltaic, hydrogen energy, nuclear energy and other related equipment under the background of carbon neutralization, especially the equipment demand caused by the changes of materials and processes brought about by the upgrading of energy forms. Focus on carbon fiber, hydrogen storage and transportation and other fields.
Base load energy is the best choice, and nuclear power equipment may usher in 100 billion market space. Under the background of “carbon neutralization”, nuclear power will become an important part of base load energy in the future with its advantages of high energy efficiency, low pollution, environment-friendly, large single unit capacity and stable power generation. China’s third-generation nuclear power technology has developed in an all-round way. As of September 30, 2021, China’s operating nuclear power installed capacity is 53.49 million kW (rated installed capacity). According to the annual development and Prospect of China’s nuclear energy (2020) released by China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, China’s nuclear power installed capacity in operation will reach 70 million KW by 2025 and 30 million KW under construction. By 2035, The total installed capacity of nuclear power in operation and under construction will reach 200 million KW. According to the installed capacity of 1 million KW per nuclear power unit, nuclear power construction is expected to be promoted by 10 units per year. Based on the construction cost of 11000-18000 yuan per kilowatt of nuclear power plant, the average annual nuclear power market space from 2022 to 2025 is about 127.9-209.3 billion yuan, of which the equipment market space is about 64-104.7 billion yuan / year.
Nuclear island core equipment is still monopolized by state-owned enterprises, and private enterprises are more active in subdivided fields. Nuclear power equipment mainly includes nuclear island (Ni), conventional island (CI) and auxiliary equipment (BOP). Nuclear island is the core of the whole nuclear power plant, which accounts for the highest cost in the investment and construction of nuclear power plant, and undertakes the main part of thermonuclear reaction. The main equipment of nuclear island includes nuclear reactor (including reactor core, pressure vessel and reactor internals), main pipeline and heat exchanger, steam generator, nuclear level valve, reactor coolant pump, control rod and driving mechanism, nuclear level cable, pressurizer, safety tank and boron injection tank. Among them, reactor pressure vessel, main pipeline, heat exchanger and steam generator are the three main components of nuclear island, which are basically monopolized by state-owned enterprises. The threshold of main pipeline, nuclear grade valves, main pumps, nuclear motors and other parts and nuclear grade seals is relatively low. A few private enterprises can enter this field, but they still need strict qualification examination standards.
The market competition of conventional island equipment is relatively fierce, and the comprehensive localization rate is more than 85%. The function of conventional island is to convert the heat energy of nuclear steam supply system into mechanical energy in steam turbine and drive the engine to generate power. It is composed of pipeline system, condenser, steam turbine, generator, steam water separator reheater, etc. At present, the comprehensive localization rate of major second-generation improved nuclear power unit projects, such as Hongyanhe, Fuqing, Fangchenggang and other conventional islands, has reached more than 85%. In terms of subdivided fields, key regulatory equipment fields such as steam turbine generator unit, steam water re separator and condenser are monopolized by three state-owned enterprises Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) , Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited(601727) and Harbin Electric. The market competition in other equipment fields is relatively fierce, and the participation of private enterprises in non core equipment of conventional island such as valves, condensers and pumps is high.
The demand for spent fuel reprocessing equipment may exceed expectations. Spent fuel is high-level radioactive nuclear waste. At present, China’s spent fuel reprocessing technology is not mature enough. According to the data of toubao Research Institute, the annual output of spent fuel per 1 million kw of nuclear power equipment capacity is about 21 tons. In 2020, China’s output of spent fuel is 1071.6 tons, while the spent fuel reprocessing capacity is only 50 tons. Considering the high cost and long cycle of the construction of spent fuel reprocessing plant, it will be difficult to meet the demand for spent fuel treatment in the short term.
Recommended attention: it is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) , Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(603308) , Harbin Electric Corporation Jiamusi Electric Machine Co.Ltd(000922) , Sinoseal Holding Co.Ltd(300470) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) for nuclear island and conventional island equipment; It is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) , Tongyu Heavy Industy Co.Ltd(300185) , Lanzhou Ls Heavy Equipment Co.Ltd(603169) in the field of spent fuel reprocessing equipment.
Risk warning: nuclear power start-up risk; The demand for nuclear power equipment is less than the expected risk; Nuclear safety accident risk.
