All sectors in the post real estate cycle this week showed relatively strong performance. The CSI 300 index fell 2.39% this week. Among the sectors in the post real estate cycle, the black household appliances sector fell 0.24% this week, but still outperformed the market by 2.15pct. The white household appliances, kitchen appliances, small household appliances, lighting electricians, furniture and service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) sectors rose by 5.74%, 3.64%, 2.65%, 1.92%, 0.26% and 0.15% respectively this week, outperforming the market by 8.13pct, 6.03pct, 5.04pct, 4.31pct, 2.65pct 2.54pct。
Domestic sales: in December, the sales of key brands of clean appliances continued to grow positively year-on-year, and the sales growth of main brands of integrated stoves decreased year-on-year. (1) Upstream raw material price: this week, the price of furniture board fell and the price of chemical raw materials for soft furniture rose; Copper prices fell, aluminum prices rose, and the price trend of plastic raw materials was divided. (2) China’s real estate demand: in November, the sales area of new houses continued to grow negatively year-on-year, and the completed area turned to a positive growth year-on-year; In November, the transaction volume of second-hand houses continued to decline year-on-year. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national residential sales area decreased by 16.3% year-on-year in November 2021 and 6.8% year-on-year in November 2019; In terms of second-hand housing transactions, in November 2021, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in China’s top 10 cities was 40500 units, a year-on-year decrease of 38%; In terms of the opening of hardbound houses, according to the statistical data of ovicloud, the opening volume of hardbound houses nationwide was about 302000 units in November 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. (3) Retail tracking: in November 2021, the retail sales of furniture increased by 6.1% year-on-year, and the retail sales of household appliances increased by 6.6% year-on-year. In terms of breakdown categories, according to the monitoring data of ovicloud, in November 2021, the online retail sales of integrated stove, sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and dishwasher increased by 42.3%, 35.1% and 4.7% respectively year-on-year, the online sales of kitchen large and small household appliances decreased by 11.3% and 26.7% respectively year-on-year, and the online retail sales of cleaning appliances increased by 27.1% year-on-year. The driving force is mainly due to emerging categories such as dishwasher. According to the statistical data of Amoy data platform, in December 2021, the sales of clean electrical appliances brand maintained a positive year-on-year growth, the sales growth of integrated stove brand fell year-on-year, and the sales of kitchen small electricity brand continued to have a negative year-on-year growth.
Export: in November, the export volume of range hoods and other categories continued the high growth trend since the third quarter, and the export volume of vacuum cleaners and other categories decreased year-on-year. (1) Overseas real estate demand: in November 2021, the sales of existing homes in the United States decreased by 2% year-on-year, with continuous negative growth; In November, the number of new construction projects increased by 8% year-on-year, turning to positive growth. (2) Export performance of sectors and sub categories: in November 2021, the export volume of furniture and household appliances industry maintained a positive year-on-year growth, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2% and 22% respectively. The growth rate of furniture export volume decreased significantly. According to the data disclosed by the General Administration of customs, in November 2021, the export volume of air conditioners, washing machines, range hoods and other categories continued the high growth trend since the third quarter, and the year-on-year growth rate of export volume of vacuum cleaners and other categories fell.
Investment proposal and investment object
The demand for domestic sales and export continued to grow rapidly in the post real estate cycle. It is suggested to pay attention to the customized home leaders Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (002572, buy), Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833, overweight), Guangzhou Shangpin Home Collection Co.Ltd(300616) (300616, overweight), Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) (603801, not rated), and software furniture leaders Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (603816, not rated); Benefiting from the high growth of emerging categories such as floor sweepers and small household appliances, it is recommended to pay attention to China’s floor sweepers Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) leaders Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486, overweight), Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (688169, buy), small household appliances leaders with continuous category innovation Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) (002242, overweight), Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) (002705, buy), Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) (002959, overweight), Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) (300824, overweight).
Risk tips
The risk of real estate sales and completion falling short of expectations, and the risk of sharp rise in the price of raw materials
