Zhou’s view: continue to be optimistic about independent rise + electric intelligence + motorcycle
Great changes have taken place in automotive intelligent and electric, reshaping the industrial order, and looking forward to the golden decade of the automotive industry. Automobile enterprises have successively disclosed the production and marketing express in December 2021. The core shortage has improved significantly in December, and the production capacity has been accelerated. It is expected that the vehicle factory will gradually start the replenishment cycle in the first half of this year. Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, and the market potential is huge. Continue to be bullish on the independent rise, incremental parts and motorcycle sector. Core portfolio of this month [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) ].
Passenger cars: 10489 / 16000 / 14087 / 10127 / 7807 / vehicles will be delivered by Weilai / Xiaopeng / ideal / Hezhong / Zero run respectively in December 2021. Except Weilai, the delivery of other single months will reach a new high; In the whole year, 9.1/9.8/9.0/7.0/43000 vehicles were delivered respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 109% / + 263% / + 177% / + 362% / + 279%. The annual delivery volume reached a record high. Polar krypton 001 was listed in October and delivered 3796 vehicles in December, a month on month increase of + 88.7%. The transformation of electric intelligence promotes the great transformation of the vehicle business model, and the scientific and technological attributes and consumption attributes will become more prominent, driving the reconstruction of valuation. We are firmly optimistic about the independent rise and realize the improvement of brand and market share through the transformation. We recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ], pay attention to [ Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) H], and benefit the target [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: electric intelligent reshapes the industrial order, firmly looks at many parts, and recommends tbr (Tesla + Byd Company Limited(002594) + rivian) industrial chain + electric intelligent incremental parts:
1. Be optimistic about tbr (Tesla + Byd Company Limited(002594) + rivian) industrial chain:
1) Tesla industrial chain: Tesla will sell 936000 vehicles worldwide in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 88%, with a target of 20 million vehicles by 2030. The accelerated growth of sales drives the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become more steep. It is recommended to recommend more flexible [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ], benefited targets [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ] and potential benefit targets [ Ningbo Hengshuai Co.Ltd(300969) ].
2) Byd Company Limited(002594) industrial chain: Byd Company Limited(002594) the sales volume is 430000 in 2020, 740000 in 2021, and 1.5 million this year. The sales volume of DM-I Series in 2021 is slightly less than 300000, and it is expected to reach 1 million in 2022. The volume is rapid. It is recommended to [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], and the benefit targets are [ Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) ].
3) rivian industrial chain: recommend [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ], benefit target [ Shanghai Daimay Automotive Interior Co.Ltd(603730) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Tianjin Motor Dies Co.Ltd(002510) ]. Rivian adopts a sliding plate chassis platform (i.e. non load-bearing body structure + wire transmission steering / braking system + battery pack and chassis integration), which is expected to lead the industry innovation and become the mainstream trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the layout of wire controlled braking [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ] and the beneficiary object of hub motor [ Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) ].
2. Optimistic about electric intelligent incremental parts:
1) electrification increment: three power system industrial chain [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], beneficiary targets [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (covered by the new power group), Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) , Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) ]; New energy thermal management industry chain [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary targets [ Ningbo Hengshuai Co.Ltd(300969) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight industrial chain [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficiary objects [ Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Guangdong Hoshion Aluminium Co.Ltd(002824) ].
2) intelligent increment: automatic driving industrial chain [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Xingyu shares], the beneficiary object [Nextel]; Intelligent cockpit industry chain [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) *, Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively).
Motorcycles: in November, China sold 26000 medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 47.5% and a month on month increase of – 10.6% (299600 motorcycles were sold from January to November, with a year-on-year increase of + 62.2%). Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. Their share will focus on independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. Recommended [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ].
This week’s market: overall weaker than the market, led by passenger cars
This week, the A-share auto sector fell 3.99%, ranking 23rd in shenwanzi industry, weaker than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (down 1.51%). Among the segments, passenger cars and trucks increased by 1.72% and 0.48% respectively, while automobile services, auto parts, other transportation equipment and passenger cars decreased by 1.16%, 3.20%, 4.16% and 5.49% respectively.
Data of this week: retail sales improved slightly and wholesale sales decreased year-on-year
In the fifth week of December, the average daily wholesale volume was 102000, with a year-on-year increase of – 17% and a month on month increase of – 16%; The average daily retail sales volume was 109000, with a year-on-year increase of – 9% and a month on month increase of + 5%. In December, the average daily wholesale was 74000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 1% and a month on month increase of + 6%; The average daily retail sales was 70000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 6% and a month on month increase of + 19%.
Risk tips
Chip supply shortage; Fluctuations in raw material costs; Sales recovery was less than expected.
