Market pessimistic expectations digested and coal prices rebounded. As of January 7, wind data showed that the market price of q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port closed at 815 yuan / ton, up 27 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. On January 7, the inventory of key ports (SDIC Jingtang Port, Qinhuangdao port and Caofeidian port) was 10.2 million tons, down 590000 tons on a weekly basis. According to the coal resources network, Indonesia’s export ban has accelerated the reversal of pessimistic market expectations. Power plants, metallurgical and chemical enterprises have opened storage before the Spring Festival, and the rising purchase demand has driven up prices. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply side focuses on ensuring safety, while the industrial load on the demand side is expected to decline. At present, the inventory of the power plant is at a high level, and the available days remain at the level of about 20 days. We believe that the task of “ensuring supply” has been completed, the coal mine can maintain the normal production rhythm, and the situation of weak supply and demand may occur during the Spring Festival, In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to the holidays during the Spring Festival and the actual situation of guaranteed supply withdrawal.
Coke price is expected to be strong. According to wind data, as of January 7, the on-site price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke closed at 2860 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The market price of Linfen secondary metallurgical coke closed at 2680 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. In the port, the price of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) primary metallurgical coke was 3110 yuan / ton, up 300 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. According to the coal resources network, in terms of supply, the recent environmental protection inspection is more frequent. In some areas, coke enterprises have limited production, and the coke supply may be tight. In terms of demand, the steel plant has a fast pace of resumption of production, and the demand for coke has increased significantly. On the whole, the demand of steel mills has recovered recently, and the efforts to replenish coke storage have been increased. However, some coke enterprises are limited to start work due to environmental protection and other factors, the coke supply may be reduced, and the supply and demand side of the coke market may show a tense pattern. It is expected that the mainstream or strong operation of the coke market in the short term.
Coking coal supply is tight, and the price is expected to be stable and stronger. According to wind data, as of January 7, the price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 2600 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. As of January 7, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine in Australia was US $376 / ton, up US $29 / ton on a weekly basis. In terms of origin, according to the coal resources network, this week, CCI Shanxi’s low sulfur weekly ratio increased by 187 yuan / ton, Shanxi’s high sulfur weekly ratio increased by 121 yuan / ton, and Changzhi injection coal increased by 120 yuan / ton. According to the coal resources network, the new year is approaching. Most coal mines take ensuring safety as their main task, and the supply of producing areas is still tight. On the demand side, with the increase of the resumption of production of iron and steel blast furnace, the coke market has improved, and considering the Spring Festival, the stock preparation of coking plant is more active.
Investment suggestions: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are also expected to usher in value revaluation. It is recommended to pay attention to China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy kicked off, and Yankuang energy and power investment energy were recommended. 3) Under the dual carbon target, we recommend Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited(000968) as the target for methane emission reduction.
Risk tip: risk of economic slowdown; Risk of sharp decline in coal prices; Risk of policy change.
