Key investment points:
This week, the prosperity index of Guohai chemical industry was 160.26, up 1.35 month on month. Comprehensively consider the operation and prosperity of chemical enterprises, and give the industry a “recommended” rating.
Investment suggestion: invest in the subject matter with expansion capacity, the subject matter of downstream industries and the subject matter of new energy materials.
The central economic work conference requires that next year’s economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability, that all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, that all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and that the policy force should be appropriately advanced. A stable economic environment is more favorable to leading enterprises.
Looking forward to 2022, we believe that chemical industry leaders, downstream industries and new material industries are the key directions. This year, the problem of suppressing the capacity expansion of leading enterprises is expected to be gradually alleviated, the loss of profits in downstream industries due to high raw material costs will be alleviated, and the new material industry will be driven by new energy and emerging industries to usher in a good opportunity for development.
The tire industry has entered the strategic layout period. We judge that 2021q3 is the lowest point of the industry. In 2021q4 and 2022q1, the profits of the tire industry begin to improve. Based on three judgments, first, the supply shrinks and small and medium-sized tire enterprises begin to shut down. According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, on January 6, 2022, the operating rate of Shandong semi steel tire enterprises was 60.5%, and the operating rate under normal conditions was about 70%, The operating rate of Shandong all steel tire enterprises is 51.5%, and the operating rate under normal conditions is more than 70%. Dual control and negative cash flow are two reasons, especially the net operating cash flow of some listed companies in the second quarter of 2021 has turned negative; Second, the price of sea freight has been loosened. This week, the FBX index from China to western US ports was US $14070.18/feu, down 3.73% month on month; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was USD 16613.34/feu, down 0.40% from last week; Third, in November 2021, China’s monthly output of commercial vehicles was 350000, an increase of 3% month on month, the output of automobiles was 2.59 million, an increase of 11% month on month, and the output of trucks was 309000, an increase of 1% month on month. The bottom of the tire reversed. Under the background of shrinking supply and improving demand, according to Tencent News, incomplete statistics, as of November 3, 2021, 84 tire enterprises in China have announced price increases, and some enterprises even announced price increases until next year. On the whole, this round of price increases mostly ranged from 2% to 5%, with a maximum increase of 10%. We believe that the profit margin level of tires will gradually recover. In the long run, Chinese tire enterprises have outstanding cost performance advantages in the middle and low-end market, import substitution in the high-end market through channel forces, and the two major trends of internationalization and branding are irreversible. They focus on Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . These three enterprises have a significant expansion of overseas production capacity in 2022, as well as rubber additive enterprises Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) and conveyor belt enterprises Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co.Ltd(002381) .
Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has entered the rapid expansion period. We believe that the carbon peak and carbon neutralization target of the chemical industry have reached a record high of 7.6 billion yuan. According to the EIA, Wanhua Fujian Industrial Park plans to expand the MDI project to 1.6 million tons / year (Wanhua isocyanate company), the TDI project to 360000 tons / year (Wanhua Fujian), and Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has entered the rapid expansion period. We expect that Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 10000 tons of ternary battery materials and 60000 tons of biodegradable polyester materials are expected to be put into operation in 2022, bringing new catalysts. Under the dual carbon background, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) MDI, as an excellent thermal insulation material, is expected to usher in the demand explosion period. Moreover, the company focuses on Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) because of its R & D and innovation ability, capacity expansion and worry free growth.
The prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry is sustainable, and the transformation of new energy is in progress. The price of phosphate rock continued to rise, from 350 yuan / ton at the end of 2020 to 627.5 yuan / ton at present, an increase of 79%; The wet process industrial monoammonium in Southwest China was adjusted from 5300 yuan / ton on September 23, 2021 to 5500 yuan / ton on January 7, 2022, and reversed upward again; The price of yellow phosphorus was adjusted back to 35000 yuan / ton, up 48.94% from 23500 yuan / ton in August 2021; Enterprises with industrial chain integration benefit. In addition, the export volume of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer decreased significantly in August 2021, and the export was limited. As a compound fertilizer industry with squeezed terminal profits, the profits gradually improved. In the first half of 2022, both Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) iron phosphate will be implemented, and the phosphorus chemical industry chain is still in the transition period from traditional chemical fertilizer industry to new energy materials. We focus on phosphorus chemical enterprises with industrial chain integration and fast transformation speed, including Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Shenzhen Batian Ecotypic Engineering Co.Ltd(002170) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) and other enterprises. Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) merger draft has been released.
Satellite chemical phase I ethylene project is gradually put into operation. According to Xinhua news agency, China and the United States have agreed to increase the export of agricultural products and energy from the United States. Satellite chemical will be encouraged to import ethane from the United States. The continuous implementation of satellite chemical light hydrocarbon integration project deserves special attention.
The leading development of coal chemical industry has ushered in a turnaround. With the relaxation of raw material energy consumption policy, the coal chemical projects blocked in the early stage are expected to be implemented, and the growth of enterprises such as Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) is prominent. Private refining ushered in a good opportunity for development. The large-scale refining and chemical projects gradually extend downstream, and a series of new chemical material projects are expected to be implemented, focusing on Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) and other enterprises.
At the same time, pay attention to Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) with the sharp rise in the price of Kungfu pyrethrin, Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) with the continuous rise in the price of sugar substitutes, Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) and Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) that can still maintain the performance growth under the pressure of the rise in the price of raw materials, and Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) expanding to new energy materials.
Chemical industry leaders are the kings of the future. According to our observation, there are a number of leading companies in China’s chemical industry. Compared with international competitors, they show obvious efficiency advantages in terms of rate of return, labor efficiency and turnover. The slowdown of China’s GDP growth and the control of carbon emissions in the future have led to the concentration of resources in all aspects to the leading chemical enterprises, superimposed with intelligent manufacturing, R & D and innovation, and the increase of the leading market share is accelerating. At present, we believe that China’s leading companies have the ability to plan a global blueprint and move towards global leaders. We suggest that we should work with excellent enterprises and invest in those enterprises with efficient execution. This efficient ability will make the profitability of Chinese enterprises higher than that of international competitors, with higher rate of return and larger scale in the future. Therefore, the market value of foreign giants is far from the ceiling of Chinese enterprises. For example, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , which is building an integrated industrial chain, continuously increasing R & D investment, multi category expansion and moving forward to a first-class chemical new material company with global operation, has made a synchronous breakthrough in original replacement, China and foreign countries go hand in hand, and is aiming at the top five Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) in the global tire industry in 2030, with high starting point, high standard Build Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) and Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) of world-class refineries with high efficiency.
We focus on the leaders in various sub sectors that are still undervalued, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , the leader in the tire industry Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , and Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) and Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) , private refining giants ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ), the leader in the field of compound fertilizer Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , the leader in rubber additives Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) Viscose staple fiber leader Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , vitamin leader Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , coal chemical leader Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , new coal chemical leader Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , pesticide leader Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , glyphosate leader Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) , inorganic new material leader Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , satellite chemistry in C2 / C3 field, sweetener leader Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , plant growth regulator leader Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002749) , titanium dioxide leader Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) Spandex and adipic acid leader Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) , organic fine chemicals leader Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , dicamba enterprise Jiangsu Changqing Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002391) , grease chemical leader Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) , etc.
The U.S. Department of Commerce issued a statement on May 15, 2020 local time, saying that the strategic position of semiconductor materials has become increasingly prominent by comprehensively restricting Huawei’s purchase of semiconductors produced with U.S. software and technology. It is suggested to pay attention to Rayitek Hi-Tech Film Company Ltd.Shenzhen(688323) , Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Jingrui shares, Changzhou Tronly New Electronic Materials Co.Ltd(300429) , Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) , Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) , Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) and other enterprises. In addition, we hope that the new materials will continue to expand continuously, and have strong technical content of polymer anti-aging leader Rianlon Corporation(300596) , thermoplastic elastomer head Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.Ltd(002838) , brine extraction lithium technology leader Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) .
Key target information tracking
[ Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the price of pure MDI was 21000 yuan / ton on January 7, 2022, compared with + 250 yuan / ton on December 31, 2021; The price of aggregate MDI is 21350 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 850 yuan / ton on December 31, 2021. According to China development network, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) advanced polymer R & D center was selected as the National Engineering R & D center.
[ Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) ] according to Bloomberg, the FBX index from China to west American ports this week was US $14070.18/feu, down 3.73% from last week; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was USD 16613.34/feu, down 0.40% from last week; The FBX index from China to Europe was US $14364.99/feu, down 0.90% from last week. According to Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) WeChat official account, in January 4, 2022, the Shell Atlas tire new retail strategic cooperation conference was held in Shanghai as the theme of “shell moving the future and attracting the development of Ling.” Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) reach a strategic cooperation with shell to build a new benchmark of China’s automotive supply chain.
[ Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) ] on January 8, the company announced that Zhou rugang, vice president of the company, plans to reduce his holdings of no more than 280000 shares of the company through centralized bidding trading on Shanghai Stock Exchange within 6 months after 15 trading days from the date of disclosure of this announcement due to personal capital needs. The number of shares to be reduced shall not exceed 25% of the total number of shares held by the company at the end of the previous year, and the reduction price will be determined according to the market price at the time of reduction.
[ Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) ] according to WeChat world official account of the tires world network, in January 4th, the list of Grandpa intelligent manufacturing benchmarking enterprises in Shandong was publicized in 2021, including two tire companies, and Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) was successfully selected.
[ Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the inventory of polyester filament was 15.7 days on January 6, with a month on month comparison of – 2.8 days; PTA1 had an inventory of 3.253 million tons on July 7, a month on month increase of + 25000 tons. On January 7, the price of polyester filament FDY was 7750 yuan / ton, up from + 225 yuan / ton on December 31, 2021; On January 7, PTA price was 5225 yuan / ton, up from + 275 yuan / ton on December 31, 2021. On January 1, the company announced that its subsidiary, Jiangsu Xuanda, plans to purchase the house buildings, projects under construction, engineering materials and three industrial land use rights owned by Nantong Guangzhen company in WuJie Town, Tongzhou District, Nantong City, with a transaction price of RMB 2.184 billion, which will provide a strong guarantee for the smooth progress of Hengke phase III project.
[ Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ] no update information
[ Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ] on January 5, the company announced that as of the disclosure date of this announcement, 100% of the equity of Jiangsu Sibang Petrochemical Co., Ltd., the subject asset of the company’s current issuance of shares and payment of cash to purchase assets and raise supporting funds and related party transactions, has been transferred to the company and the industrial and commercial change registration procedures have been completed. On January 6, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. The company expects the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 to be RMB 4.1-5 billion, an increase of 435% – 552.44% over the same period of last year (after retroactive adjustment).
[ Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ] on January 5, the company issued a progress announcement on the repurchase of the company’s shares (phase II). As of December 31, 2021, the company had repurchased 19.809 million shares through centralized bidding trading through the special securities account for repurchase, accounting for 0.54% of the company’s total share capital, and the total repurchase amount paid was 208 million yuan.
[ Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ] no update message
[ Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ] according to the official account of WeChat Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) , in January 4, 2022, the opening ceremony of the three phase PTA project of Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) group in Dushan was successfully held. The total investment of the project was 5 billion 330 million yuan. After commissioning, it was expected to achieve a revenue of 20 billion 800 million yuan and a profit of 1 billion 640 million yuan.
[ Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the price of monoammonium phosphate this week was 2875 yuan / ton, down 16.67 yuan / ton month on month; The price of compound fertilizer was 3272.50 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. On the evening of January 5, 2022, the company announced that Yangfeng Chuyuan, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to sign the investment / service agreement for investment attraction projects with Yidu Municipal People’s government to build a production line with an annual output of 100000 tons of iron phosphate and 50000 tons of lithium iron phosphate, supporting 100000 tons of refined phosphoric acid production line, with a planned total investment of 3 billion yuan, including about 2.5 billion yuan in fixed assets.
[ Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) ] [ Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) ] no update information
[ Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ] on January 5, the company announced that recently Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) and its subsidiaries Henan baillian new materials Co., Ltd., Henan Longbai Intelligent Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. and Longbai Xiangyang Titanium Industry Co., Ltd. received a total of 22.1343 million yuan of government subsidies. Meanwhile, the company and its subsidiary Henan baillian new materials Co., Ltd. have received 16 invention patent certificates issued by the State Intellectual Property Office.
[ Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of accelerator M was 15500 yuan / ton on January 7, unchanged month on month on December 31, 2021; The average price of accelerator NS is 26000 yuan / ton, compared with December 31, 2021 – 500 yuan / ton; The average price of accelerator TMTD is 19250 yuan / ton, compared with December 31, 2021 – 250 yuan / ton.
[ Zhejiang Double Arrow Rubber Co.Ltd(002381) ] [ Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) ] has no update information.
[ Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) ] according to wind, on January 7, the spandex 40d was 63000 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month.
[ Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ] according to wind, the price of vitamin A was 262.5 yuan / kg on January 7, 2022, compared with – 7.5 yuan / kg on December 31, 2021; The price of vitamin E was 87.5 yuan / kg, unchanged on December 31, 2021. On January 4, the company issued an announcement on the progress of repurchasing the company’s shares. As of December 31, 2021, the company has repurchased 10.9884 million shares of the company’s shares through centralized bidding trading through the special securities account for repurchase, accounting for 0.4262% of the company’s total share capital, with a cumulative transaction amount of 320 million yuan.
[ Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) ] according to wind, the market price of viscose staple fiber 1.5D in China on January 7 was 12800 yuan / ton, compared with + 730 yuan / ton on December 31. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the Chinese market price of light soda ash in East China on January 7 was 2150 yuan / ton, compared with – 125 yuan / ton on December 31.
[ Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) ] according to wind, the market price of ethylene glycol in China on January 7 was 5185 yuan / ton, up from + 305 yuan / ton on December 31. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the listing price of Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) urea small particles on January 7 was 2560 yuan / ton, compared with + 30 yuan / ton on December 31.
[ Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ] according to Baichuan information, the price of sucralose on Wednesday was 480000 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; Methyl Maltol
