Industry tracking (2022.1.1-2022.1.7)
Since the beginning of the year, Shenwan real estate sector has increased by 4.46%, ranking first in the industry (data as of January 7, 2022). We believe that the core driving factor is that the confirmation of the industry policy bottom determines the high winning rate of the policy game, and further highlights the price performance advantage of the sector under the rapid rotation market and risk aversion at the beginning of the year. In addition, the expected warming of policy adjustment also leads to the front of the game rhythm. We believe that high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to continue to benefit from the alpha opportunities brought by M & A and targeted easing of refinancing. At the same time, under the demands of industry pattern optimization, industry stable expectation and macro stable growth, the enrichment of policy game points is expected to bring a phased beta market by the end of the first quarter.
Specifically, one of the game points is the alpha generated by credit problems, which is more likely. It is worth looking forward to the follow-up refinancing support (not excluding equity refinancing), debt ratio assessment and the improvement of local state-owned assets participation; The second point of the game is that the excessive superposition effect after the expected reversal needs to be alleviated. It is also possible to improve the liquidity run and avoid excessive upgrading at the local level through top-down coordination; The third game point is the policy beta, which depends on the passive trigger of macro and fundamentals. We are still optimistic about the expectation of three stabilities and the mild upgrading of urban implementation policies, and even the introduction of more powerful supporting policies in extreme cases.
Affected by the festival, transactions in new houses, second-hand houses and land markets were weak this week
The new housing market traded 4.25 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 43.67%, down 28.05 PCT compared with the previous month; The accumulated inventory is 145.38 million square meters, and the decontamination of the first, second, third and lower lines is accelerated. The second-hand housing market traded 890000 square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 49.05%, down 18.83pct compared with the previous month. The land market traded 15.31 million square meters this week, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 54.18%; The total turnover was 25.7 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 39.74%; The national average premium rate was + 4.40%, rolling for 12 weeks, year-on-year -9.37pct. The weak turnover in the sales market is mainly affected by the festival.
This week, Shenwan real estate index was 4.46%, up 3.81 PCT from last week, ranking 1 / 31, leading the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 6.85 PCT. In terms of H shares, the wind Hong Kong real estate index was 1.61% this week, up 0.68pct from last week, ranking 4 / 11, leading the Hang Seng Index by 1.21pct; The leading index of kroney real estate stocks was 6.12%, up 5.92pct from last week.
Grasp the improvement of M & A on the left and concentration on the right
Investment suggestions: Recently, the management has made intensive statements to guide the industry towards a more standardized stable and healthy development period in the medium and long term, short-term policy adjustments to alleviate pessimistic sales expectations, affordable rental housing to hedge against the decline of potential development investment, and promote the industry to return to a virtuous circle and healthy development. The future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Suggestions: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , rongchuang China, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group; 3) High quality property management: Country Garden service, xinchengyue service, Greentown service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The downward cycle of industry sales begins; Administrative regulation remained high-pressure, and the pilot strength of real estate tax exceeded expectations
