Express: in 2022, the target growth rate of the number of pieces in the express industry is 13%; The national express market management measures (Revised Draft) and terminal fee accounting guidelines have been intensively issued, which is optimistic about the inflection point of high-quality development of the express industry.
1) the target growth rate of the express industry in 2022 is 1.3%. It is expected that the national number of pieces will exceed 150 billion in 2025, and the industry demand will grow steadily: on January 6, the national postal administration conference in 2022 was held. The conference is expected that the express business volume in 2021 will be 108.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and the express business volume in 2022 will be 122.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%. In addition, according to the "14th five year plan" for the development of the postal industry, it is estimated that the number of Express items in China will reach 150 billion in 2025. We estimate that the annual compound growth rate of the industry will be 8.43% from 2022 to 2025. According to the 12th Five Year Plan and the 13th five year plan and the actual results, the actual growth rate of the industry generally exceeds the target growth rate, and it is optimistic that the demand of the express industry will continue to grow steadily.
2) the draft of the measures for the administration of the express market (Revised Draft) was released. For the first time, the national level explicitly prohibited competition below the cost price. At the same time, a large number of policies were improved to promote the high-quality development of the industry: on January 7, the state post office issued the measures for the administration of the express market (Revised Draft) (Draft for comments). The current management measures have been in use for 9 years since 2013. The draft for comments has been greatly revised and improved, and several chapters have been added, including the first provision that express enterprises "provide express services at a price lower than the cost without justified reasons" and "shall not deliver without the consent of users". We believe that the combination of industrial policies should be closely coordinated, Effectively standardize the business behavior of the main body of the express market, and the inflection point of high-quality development of the express industry has come. The express delivery laws and regulations at the national level have been continuously improved, and the industry has changed from low-cost disorderly competition to high-quality development, and the trend of service and product competition is clear.
3) the guidelines for the accounting of end payment of express enterprises have been issued, and the quantitative guidelines protect the rights and interests of couriers and outlets: on December 29, 2021, China Express Association issued the guidelines for the accounting of end payment of express enterprises, which will be implemented on March 1, 2022. The guidelines put forward that the courier dispatch fee is "multiple of the local minimum wage standard * / (number of pieces dispatched per day * 26 days)", and the multiple is generally 2-3 times, which quantitatively protects the labor rights and interests of the courier. On this basis, by calculating the operating costs and profits of the outlets, the single ticket distribution fee from the headquarters to the outlets is determined to ensure that the outlets still have profits beyond the covered expenses. Through quantitative calculation, the guidelines determine the costs and profits of headquarters, outlets and couriers, effectively protect the rights and interests of couriers and outlets, further reduce the possibility of price war and guide benign competition in the industry.
Express industry policies have been issued intensively, the short-term price center of Tongda has moved upward, the medium and long-term development direction has been determined, and the industry inflection point and leading competitiveness are optimistic. SF business inflection point has been established and is optimistic about the leading value of comprehensive logistics. Policy supervision continues to emphasize service competition. The old model of price competition in the industry is getting farther and farther. The price center of Tongda express is moving upward. It is expected that the profits of leading enterprises will be significantly improved in 2022; On the supply side, after Jitu acquired Baishi, it once again strengthened the competition pattern of the industry head; From a medium and long-term perspective, under the background of continuous improvement of online penetration, the demand growth of the express industry is highly deterministic, and service has become a new competitive factor. After the pattern is stable, the industry leaders will fully benefit from the increase of share and profit; A shares mainly recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (establishment of fundamental inflection point), Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) (large room for improvement), Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) (high certainty of improvement), and U.S. stocks are optimistic about China Express. Aviation: during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the passenger volume of civil aviation is expected to grow steadily. The aviation demand during the Spring Festival holiday may improve significantly year-on-year. It is optimistic that the supply and demand of the aviation industry will reverse after the epidemic.
1) the civil aviation development plan of the 14th five year plan was officially issued, and the passenger traffic volume is expected to grow steadily: Recently, the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of transport jointly issued the civil aviation development plan of the 14th five year plan. According to the plan, the passenger transport volume is expected to reach 930 million person times in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 5.9% in six years (from 2019). According to the plan, 2021-2022 is the recovery period and savings period. In combination with epidemic prevention and control, we should regulate the delivery of transportation capacity, accumulate development momentum and promote the recovery and growth of the industry; 2023-2025 is the growth period and release period, expanding the Chinese market, restoring the international market and promoting the high-quality development of civil aviation in an all-round way. According to the 14th five year plan, China's civil aviation passenger volume will maintain a growth rate equivalent to GDP growth by 2025. Under the condition of low supply growth in the medium term, the industry is expected to usher in a reversal of supply and demand.
2) when returning home during the Spring Festival holiday or adjusting measures to local conditions, the demand for air travel is expected to improve year-on-year: on January 6, Zhong Nanshan expressed his opinions on the return of Spring Festival, believing that citizens in low-risk areas can go home for the Spring Festival without complete suspension. At the same time, the people have a strong awareness of prevention and control, and there is no need for national closure during the Spring Festival holiday. In addition, many provinces and cities have made it clear that nucleic acid certificates are required to return home. The Ministry of transport, together with 14 departments, issued the opinions on doing a good job in the spring transportation in 2022, requiring epidemic prevention and control, ensuring the safe and orderly flow of personnel, and resolutely preventing one size fits all and overweight at all levels. On the whole, people in low-risk areas will not be subject to too many restrictions on returning home during the Spring Festival, and the prevention and control policies may be more adapted to local conditions during the Spring Festival. Previously, some consumers were worried that the local new year policy would still be maintained this year. Under the expected reversal, the demand for air travel is expected to improve significantly year-on-year. They pay attention to the prevention and control of recent epidemic areas and the explanation of local spring festival policies.
3) the development of Xi'an epidemic has impacted on air transportation, and China has reached mass immunization in theory: as of January 7, China has 6320 confirmed cases, 139 new cases on the 6th, 107 more than the new cases on the 5th, and 16 + 81 medium and high-risk areas, mainly distributed in Xi'an, Shaanxi and Xuchang, Henan. The Xi'an epidemic had a short-term impact on China's aviation operation. According to the flight steward data, the number of passengers transported by civil aviation in the three days of new year's day decreased by 26.8% year-on-year. On January 6, Zhong Nanshan introduced that at present, 1.213 billion people in China have completed the whole process of vaccination, and the vaccination rate has reached 86%. In theory, China has achieved the effect of mass immunization. The repeated epidemic situation does not change the aviation recovery trend, and it is optimistic that the aviation company will turn around its losses in 2022.
On the demand side, the worst period of the epidemic is basically over. With the promotion of vaccination and specific drugs, the suppressed travel demand will gradually recover. On the supply side, the introduction of airlines' transport capacity is slow, Boeing and Airbus orders accumulate, and even the 737max go around still does not change the low growth of transport capacity. The low growth of supply in the medium term has high certainty. In addition, the market-oriented reform of civil aviation fares opens up the space for price elasticity. The inflection point of supply and demand certainty is superimposed on the upward fare, and aviation is expected to usher in a growth cycle. Focus on recommending Air China Limited(601111) with high-quality routes (which will significantly benefit from the recovery of official travel); Low cost aviation leader Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ; China line accounts for a high proportion of China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) with large performance flexibility; China Eastern Airlines with obvious location advantages; Focus on Regional Airlines China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Airports: under the disturbance of the epidemic, the throughput of core airports decreased year-on-year in 2021, and the passenger throughput of Guangzhou Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) was the highest in China: according to the flight steward data, the top 3 airports of passenger throughput in 2021 were Guangzhou Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Chengdu Shuangliu Airport and Shenzhen Bao'an airport respectively. Under the disturbance of the epidemic, the throughput decreased year-on-year in 2020, of which Guangzhou Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) - 7.3% decreased the most, The passenger throughput of Beijing Capital Airport was - 5.8% year-on-year, mainly affected by the diversion of Beijing Daxing airport.
Disturbed by the scattered epidemic situation, there is still no inflection point in airport throughput in 2021. The short-term airport aviation business has declined due to the disturbance of the epidemic, and the epidemic in China is generally controllable. With the continuous promotion of vaccination, China's international aviation passenger flow is expected to gradually recover. In the long run, the airport's aviation business is stable, and the tax-free industry has huge space. Listed airports will continue to benefit from tax-free dividends in the future, focusing on the airport leaders Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Road and Railway: the State Council has issued the work plan for promoting the development of multimodal transport, optimizing and adjusting the transport structure (2021-2025), and multimodal transport has become a key development direction in the future: Recently, the State Council issued the work plan for promoting the development of multimodal transport, optimizing and adjusting the transport structure (2021-2025), which points out that the development level of multimodal transport will be significantly improved by 2025, The development pattern of railway and waterway based medium and long-distance transportation of bulk goods and containers has been basically formed. The national railway and waterway freight volume has increased by about 10% and 12% respectively year-on-year in 2020, and the container iron water intermodal transport volume has increased by more than 15% annually. By optimizing multimodal transport and improving the transportation hub network, the efficiency of railway transportation is expected to be improved. It is expected that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the volume of railway and waterway transportation will maintain a stable growth trend, and the iron water intermodal transportation will maintain a high-speed growth.
Investment strategy this week: express delivery policy is released intensively again to determine the future growth expectation and high-quality development path of the industry. The short-term accessibility profit will be significantly repaired. The industry will gradually turn to service differentiated competition and be optimistic about the inflection point and leading value of the industry. In addition, Shunfeng, the comprehensive logistics dragon head, ushered in the operation inflection point; China's aviation demand continues to recover, and the international line is expected to improve marginally. At the same time, the supply certainty slows down. We are optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand in the aviation industry, the superposition of fare market-oriented reform, opening up flexible space, and the industry entering the growth cycle. Combination this week: S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Air China Limited(601111) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
Risk tips:
1) the risk of macroeconomic downturn will have a great impact on the overall demand for transportation.
2) the price competition in the express industry exceeds the market expectation. At present, the price war in the express industry is generally controllable, but it does not rule out a large-scale price war, eroding the profits of listed companies.
3) risk of rising oil price and labor cost. Transportation and labor costs, as the main costs of transportation companies, may face the risk of rising oil prices and sharply rising labor costs.
