Interpretation of important events this week:
This week, the overall performance of the market declined. The CSI 300 index fell 2.39%, of which the brokerage sector fell 3.44% and the insurance sector rose 4.44%. This week, the stock based turnover of the two cities was 1.3 trillion, up 19.42% month on month, and the balance of the two financial institutions remained at 1.83 trillion, basically the same as last weekend. This week, the minutes of the monetary policy meeting in December 2021 released by the Federal Reserve once again released the signal of raising interest rates. The three major stock indexes of the New York stock market fell for two consecutive days, causing the stock markets in Europe, Asia Pacific and other regions to fall in turn. The market volatility in China this week increased significantly, and the correction of hot sectors such as new energy was obvious. For the first quarter, we are relatively optimistic about the securities market. On the one hand, the quarterly forecast of some securities companies is expected to achieve high growth, and the performance certainty will enhance the fundamentals of the securities sector. In addition, the issuance of the fund in December continued to be hot, which is also expected to boost the market of the wealth management sector again. Investors are advised to focus on Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and China stock market news with greater flexibility in wealth management. For the insurance sector, affected by industry regulation, the loss of agent team, the base number in the same period and other factors, insurance enterprises are under great pressure to make a good start. It is expected that the marginal improvement of asset side fundamentals will become the driving force to promote the recovery of insurance enterprises’ share prices in the second quarter of next year, and the relaxation of real estate enterprises’ financing is expected to promote the improvement of credit risk concerns, It is suggested to lay out high-quality leading insurance companies with historically low valuation.
Sub segment view:
(1) securities companies: this week, the CSRC issued a document to pilot the market maker system on the science and innovation board, which will help to improve the liquidity and effectiveness of the science and innovation board and bring incremental business to securities companies. At the current time point, with good policies + good liquidity + good fundamentals, we are optimistic about the market of securities companies at the beginning of the year. It is recommended to pay attention to the main wealth management securities companies, such as Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , and China stock market news.
(2) insurance sector: the marginal changes in insurance fundamentals in the short-term market focus on the mitigation of the real estate financing environment, driving the improvement of the asset side fundamentals of insurance enterprises. Considering that the valuation of the insurance sector is at a low level and the fundamentals are expected to usher in marginal improvement, it is suggested to lay out the leading insurance companies at a low level. With regard to the subject matter, it is suggested to focus on AIA, which benefits from accelerating the expansion of the Chinese market and the dividends of insurance enterprises opening to the outside world.
(3) diversified financial sector: Recently, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued document No. 47 to relax the restrictions on the investment scope of insurance funds in venture capital institutions, which will help insurance funds increase the investment scale of venture capital institutions and significantly improve the development of venture capital industry. It is suggested to focus on Lenovo holdings, which is backed by the industrial resources of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and has high-quality investment institutions such as Junlian and Hony.
