According to the data of the Steel Association, the average daily output of pig iron of key steel enterprises in late December was 1.886 million tons, an increase of 15% month on month. The high point of this caliber in 2021 was in the range of 2.05-2.1 million tons (2021q2) and the low point was about 1.6 million tons (2021q4). It reflects that the blast furnace production of key steel enterprises has obviously resumed. From a subregional perspective, the resumption of production of steel enterprises in December was mainly concentrated in non North China. At that time, the blast furnace operating rate in Hebei was still low due to air pollution control, and the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan also rebounded after January. The resumption of production of steel enterprises superimposed the winter storage and replenishment of raw materials before the Spring Festival, which promoted the rebound of iron ore. The resumption of production of blast furnace in a large area squeezed the share of electric furnace, the profit per ton of steel fell from a high level, and some electric furnace steel production capacity had no profit. Steel prices rebounded slightly this week. On the one hand, the rising cost of raw materials promoted, and on the other hand, the winter storage of steel traders changed from cold to hot. In the later stage, the space for the rise of steel prices and raw materials may be limited, and the winter storage will come to an end. The rise of raw materials is not sustainable, and the resumption of production of steel enterprises also suppresses the processing fee per ton of steel. The short-term rebound of steel stocks is mainly caused by the expectation of stable growth. Combined with the medium-term trend of steel prices in the future, it is judged to be an oversold rebound. It is suggested to look for opportunities in the growth new material industry and pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) .
Risk tip: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase.
