Review 2021: affected by delta and Omicron mutant viruses, the global epidemic has repeatedly dragged down the pace of world economic recovery, and the economic recovery has been disturbed by factors such as disturbance at the supply end of developed economies and poor shipping. Imf10 predicted that the global GDP growth rate in 2021 will be 5.9%, down 0.1pct from the forecast in July. Affected by the upward impact of carbon neutralization and global energy prices, the overall price of chemicals is at a historically high level. SW chemical (excluding China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) ) achieved an operating revenue of 4139.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%; The total net profit was 551.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 147.2%. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the following aspects deserve attention: 1) there is great downward pressure on real estate, and the policy margin has been significantly improved; 2) Inventory is still at an all-time low, and supply is cautiously supported upward; 3) The sea freight has improved marginally, and the export price is expected to sink; 4) Ppi-cpi scissors difference convergence, focusing on fine chemical standard.
Bulk demand: traditional demand provides flexibility and new demand opens up space. 1) Low inventory superimposed freight is down, optimistic about the weaving upstream industrial chain: the grey fabric trading volume still has 13% repair space compared with that before the epidemic. At present, the industrial inventory is 30 days, at a historical low, and the grey fabric is expected to enter the replenishment cycle. With the emergence of the inflection point of sea freight, filament and viscose have the characteristics of high export proportion and low single container value, which is expected to be fully profitable; 2) Supply and demand are resonating and optimistic about the continuation of the boom of agrochemical industry: with the repeated epidemic and cost pressure, grain prices continued to operate at a high level during the year, stimulating farmers to expand planting area the next year, so as to improve the demand for agricultural products. Under the policy of environmental protection and “carbon neutralization”, high toxic pesticides continue to be eliminated, low-end production capacity continues to be cleared, and the production capacity pattern is optimized; 3) The rapid development of new energy demand opened the second growth curve of chemicals: the penetration rate of electric vehicles continued to increase, and the installed capacity of photovoltaic continued to exceed expectations, driving the continued demand for industrial silicon, soda ash, PVDF, lithium iron phosphate, DMC, sulfoxide chloride and other chemicals.
Growth: new materials are developing by leaps and bounds, and localization and substitution are accelerating. 1) Food additives: sugar substitute Changpo thick snow, sucralose boom continues. 2) PI Film: domestic substitution is accelerated, and the market space is broad. 3) Synthetic biology: carbon neutralizes the next blue ocean. 4) Nylon 66: the production capacity of adiponitrile is released to promote the localization of nylon 66
It is suggested to pay attention to: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) , Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , Shandong Kaisheng New Materials Co.Ltd(301069) , Hangzhou Juheshun New Material Co.Ltd(605166) , Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688639) .
Risk warning: the risk of product price fluctuation, the risk of deviation in market scale measurement, the risk of delayed information or untimely update of public data, and the risk that the project progress is less than expected.
