On January 8, 2022, aeroengine assembly enterprise Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) disclosed the expected announcement of daily related party transactions in 2022. On the commodity sales side, in 2022, the company and AVIC system / AVIC system are expected to achieve a commodity sales amount of 2.65/18 billion yuan, an increase of 27.42% / 26.74% compared with the index data before adjustment in 2021; On the commodity purchase side, the company and AVIC system / AVIC group system are expected to achieve a commodity purchase amount of 11 / 9 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 34.17% / 23.74% compared with the index data before adjustment in 2021.
At the same time, through the analysis of the predicted and actual value of the company's related party transactions in 2020 / 2021, we can see that the annual execution rate of the company's related party transactions presents a gradual upward trend (at the sales commodity end, the execution rate in 2020 / 2021 in the aviation development system is 66.32% / 88.87%, and the execution rate in 2020 / 2021 in the aviation industry system is 90.51% / 92.54%), Therefore, we judge that the execution rate of related party transactions of the company may be further improved in 2022, and the actual year-on-year growth rate is expected to be higher than the apparent value.
Analysis conclusion: the increase of Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) related party transaction is another verification of the high demand and high scenery attributes of the industry in the 14th five year plan by the general assembly enterprise under the new large amount prepayment mode of Party A. At the same time, Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) 2022 related party transaction sales / procurement of goods increased significantly year-on-year, indicating that downstream enterprises are optimistic about the industry boom in 2022, and the industry boom is expected to start from raw materials Midstream supporting enterprises are gradually transferred into the "14th five year plan" "Downstream main engine enterprises in the delivery stage. Under the background of high demand for terminal weapons and equipment, we expect that the production scheduling of each main engine factory is expected to continue to increase in 2022. At the same time, considering that the overall mass production of products will have a scale effect, thus increasing the gross profit margin, it is expected that the profits of each main engine factory will increase rapidly and the performance is expected to show an accelerated release trend.
In addition, the estimated value of 2022 related party transactions of aviation development midstream supporting enterprises has increased rapidly year-on-year. Under the verification of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, the high prospect of the industry can be further determined. On December 29, 2021, the supporting enterprise Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) of the engine midstream control system issued an announcement on the prediction of daily related party transactions in 2022. The enterprise expects to realize the sales of goods and products in the air launch system of 4.3 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 30.3%. As a supporting enterprise in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and important subsystems, Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) the increase in the estimated value of related party transactions is consistent with that of the host enterprise, which can further verify the high prospect of the industry in 2022.
Investment suggestion: in the previous week, the military industry sector was under pressure from the market's Misreading of policies. This Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) increase in the estimated value of related party transactions also shows that the industry fundamentals have not been affected. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the following four highlights of military industry 2022
(1) the growth rate in 2022 has strong comparative advantages; As 2022 is the first year of release of the overall newly-built capacity of the industry, the growth rate of the revenue end will accelerate. Therefore, the second-order derivative is positive. Some sectors can have a longer growth expansion period and have strategic industry comparative advantages.
(2) new models are intensively entering the pre batch production stage, and enterprises in all links of the industrial chain have the possibility of performance exceeding expectations and the extension of the duration of medium and high-speed growth;
(3) the military industry is a crossing type of economic cycle, with fundamental anti risk advantages;
(4) China's state-owned assets reform or entering the deep water area is expected to carry out market-oriented mechanism reform in fields other than the general assembly of non strategic weapons (excluding state-owned enterprises of strategic resources).
Focus on Enterprises:
(1) aeroengine: Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) etc;
(2) missile Informatization: Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Guoguang Electric Co.Ltd.Chengdu(688776) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) , capacitors;
(3) aircraft manufacturing and consumables: Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Shenfei, Hongdu, Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , etc.
Risk tip: in the first half of the year, the delivery of military products slowed down, the pricing progress of new products was slow, and the impact of macro liquidity.
