Key investment points:
Market review: from January 4 to January 7, 2022, CITIC consumer service industry index fell by 1.40% as a whole, ranking the 20th among all CITIC primary industry indexes, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by about 0.99 percentage points in the same period. CITIC consumer service industry segments all fell except the hotel and catering sector, which rose 0.28%. Education, comprehensive services, tourism and leisure fell by 0.44%, 1.39% and 1.96% respectively, all outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. There were 36 listed companies with positive earnings in the industry, of which the top five were Zhejiang Meorient Commerce & Exhibition Inc(300795) , Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) , Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) , up 24.43%, 17.3%, 14.86%, 11.31% and 7.95% respectively. 18 companies achieved negative returns, of which the top five listed companies were Jiangsu Chuanzhiboke Education Technology Co.Ltd(003032) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) , Dongguan Kingsun Optoelectronic Co.Ltd(002638) , Shenzhen Kingsun Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300235) , down 4.76%, 5.3%, 6.12%, 9.87% and 12.55% respectively. As of January 7, 2022, the overall PE of the industry was about 41.50 times, slightly lower than last week, and 46.74 times lower than the average valuation of the industry since 2016. The PE (TTM) of tourism and leisure, hotel catering, education and comprehensive services are 36.57 times, 55.48 times, 54.68 times and 66.20 times respectively.
Industry operation data: as of January 7, 2022, the vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people in China has reached 199.95 doses, the cumulative vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine has reached 2.894 billion doses, and the average covid-19 vaccination volume in seven days is about 7.4914 million doses. The total amount of covid-19 vaccination per 100 people in the world reached 119.38 doses, of which the complete vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people reached 49.93%, and the daily covid-19 vaccination volume reached 29.8042 million doses.
Important news: (1) Zhong Nanshan, academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, said that the purpose of mass immunization can be achieved if the vaccine is fully injected into a certain proportion of the population. Based on the current covid-19 vaccine injection rate in China has exceeded 83%, according to the evaluation, China has achieved a certain degree of mass immunization in theory. (2) According to the China ice and snow tourism development report released by China Tourism Research Institute, the “300 million people on ice and snow” has changed from vision to reality. Stimulated by the Beijing Winter Olympic Games, the return of ice and snow outbound tourism, the upgrading of tourism consumption and the national layout of ice and snow facilities, it is expected that the number of ice and snow tourists in China will reach 305 million in the ice and snow season in 2021-22, China’s ice and snow leisure tourism revenue is expected to reach 323.3 billion yuan.
Industry perspective: maintain the recommended rating of the industry. The valuation of the consumer service industry declined slightly this week. The local patients with Omicron variant of covid-19 pneumonia were found in Tianjin, which put pressure on the consumer service industry in the short term. Under the influence of the Winter Olympics and the local Chinese new year policy, the epidemic prevention policy for the spring festival may be tightened, but China’s covid-19 vaccination is close to 2 doses per capita. Academician Zhong Nanshan said that China has achieved a certain degree of mass immunization in theory. In the long run, covid-19 pneumonia shows an influenza trend, the epidemic situation is expected to be controlled, and the restrictions on inbound and outbound tourism are expected to be initially relaxed in the second half of 2022. In terms of tax exemption, the number of civil aviation flights in Hainan has rebounded rapidly driven by migrant tourists, which is close to the level before the outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020. It is recommended to pay careful attention to the tax-free leader China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888) with low valuation due to the arrival of peak season, medium and long-term consumption upgrading and consumption return; Franchise stores account for a relatively high proportion, leading chain hotels with stable performance Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754), Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258), etc.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Changes in industrial policies; Repeated epidemic and other risks.
