Precious metals: US Treasuries hit a two-year high, and the Fed hawkish remarks weighed on precious metal prices. ① Nominal interest rate: the U.S. non-agricultural employment population after the quarterly adjustment in December announced on Friday evening increased by only 190000, the smallest increase since January last year, far lower than the expected 400000, and the previous value increased from 210000 to 249000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in December was 3.9%, significantly lower than the expected 4.1%. Non farm production fell short of expectations, making the US dollar hit its biggest one-day decline in six weeks on Friday, and the bottom of gold rebounded slightly. However, the persistently low unemployment rate further boosted the market's expectation of raising interest rates. The federal funds rate showed that the possibility of raising interest rates in the United States in March rose to 90%, and precious metals were under long-term pressure; ② Inflation expectation: this week, the implied inflation in the US bond market decreased to 2.48% from 2.56%, and the real interest rate increased to - 0.72% from - 0.97% during the week. The minutes of the Fed meeting on Wednesday said that it may discuss the process of raising interest rates earlier than originally expected to combat inflation and discuss reducing asset holdings for the first time. After the meeting, gold prices fell by more than 1%. Higher inflation, Fed tightening and economic recovery are still the key elements of the precious metal price game.
Base metal: the rush to work at the end of the year led to the recovery of metal supply, and the downstream continued to go to the warehouse to highlight the demand toughness. (1) Copper: ① macroscopically, the improvement of ADP employment in the United States in December was significantly higher than expected. Markit's comprehensive PMI showed that the economic recovery was good. The minutes of FOMC meeting showed that in addition to accelerating taper and raising interest rates, the table contraction was also on the way, the dollar index strengthened and the metal was under pressure; ② In terms of supply, SMM statistics show that in December, SMM China's electrolytic copper output was 870300 tons, a month on month increase of 5.38% and a year-on-year increase of 0.97%. At the end of the year, the maintenance of copper smelters came to an end. At the same time, some smelters quickly recovered from the accident, superimposing the effect of catching up with production at the end of the year. In December, China's electrolytic copper output far exceeded market expectations, reaching a new high since the second half of the year. The output is expected to remain high in January 2022; ③ In terms of demand, the atmosphere is getting stronger at the end of the year, and the weekly operating rate of copper rods in China has decreased for five consecutive years. After the copper price fell this week, the stock of downstream raw materials increased, and China's inventory fell more than expected. The low inventory made the spot premium return to the high of 400 yuan / ton. It is expected that under the expectation of replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, the spot price is expected to remain high, supporting the bull sentiment in the futures market. After the US hawks made a short speech to suppress copper prices, copper prices rebounded rapidly, reflecting the strong resilience of copper prices. The risk is that the stock reserve before the Spring Festival is not as expected, driving the fundamental global inventory to pick up faster. (2) Aluminum: ① in terms of inventory: LME inventory decreased by 22300 tons to 916900 tons in a single week, China social inventory decreased by 15900 tons to 801800 tons, and China's appearance inventory was synchronized; ② Cost: within the week, the profit level of single ton electrolytic aluminum (self owned power plant) increased by 509 yuan / ton to 4480 yuan / ton, Indonesia's coal export policy reversed again, or it was difficult to form a supporting force for China's coal price; ③ In terms of supply, the resumption of production in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other regions is at a slow pace. According to the statistics of Baichuan data, the new re production capacity in the week is about 200000 tons, which has a weak impact on the overall supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum. In 2022, with the dual control of energy consumption starting a new stage of index assessment, and renewable energy such as hydropower is no longer included in the dual control assessment index of energy consumption, the production situation in Yunnan Province is expected to be better than that in 2021. On December 29, the Ministry of industry and information technology announced the relevant introduction of the "14th five year plan" for the development of raw material industry, which mentioned that by 2025, the production capacity of key raw material bulk products will only be reduced without increase, and the carbon emission of electrolytic aluminum will be reduced by 5%. This policy guidance means that the electrolytic aluminum industry will enter the era of "carbon neutralization" ahead of schedule, and look for energy-saving and carbon reduction channels in the aluminum industry chain, The release of production capacity to be put into operation will be more tortuous; ④ Demand: at the end of 2021, the Ministry of Finance issued the announcement on improving the value-added tax policy for comprehensive utilization of resources, which focused on the tightening of the 30% tax rebate policy. Among them, foundry enterprises will no longer enjoy the tax rebate subsidy, and only recycled aluminum guaranteed Utilization Enterprises in the corresponding market can enjoy the subsidy policy. We believe that the policy will further highlight the importance of graded utilization in aluminum waste recycling, and catalyze the further optimization and adjustment of China's recycled aluminum industry. At present, the enterprises that have realized graded utilization will have more advantages on the cost side. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China nonferrous metals mining, Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Jchx Mining Management Co.Ltd(603979) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Energy metals: the gap between supply and demand widened again at the end of the year, and the price of cobalt and lithium accelerated upward. (1) Lithium: some manufacturers shut down for maintenance at the end of the year, the output of lithium carbonate fell for nine consecutive weeks, and the gap between supply and demand is still widening. Since the beginning of the year, the lithium hydroxide inventory has continued to decline. In November, the retail of new energy vehicles and the production scheduling of cathode materials show that the demand side maintains a high boom. It is expected that the gap between supply and demand will gradually enlarge by the middle of next year, maintaining the bullish view of lithium prices; (2) Nickel: the purchasing demand of nickel salt downstream factories is poor, and the increase of quotation further affects the purchasing enthusiasm. The market is mainly wait-and-see, and the upward space of nickel sulfate price is under pressure; (3) Cobalt: the precursor and four cobalt manufacturers may have some replenishment due to the adjustment of production plan. The rhythm of goods collection in the downstream years ago is gradually rising, and the superimposed head enterprises reduce output, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to rise. The rising demand of 3C promoted the sharp rise of lithium cobaltate this week. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials( Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) .
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
