In the short-term adjustment, the industry boom supports the plate upward, and lithium battery is still the best investment track
Since last year, the lithium battery sector has achieved a high increase. The short-term adjustment is mainly due to capital behaviors such as trading and cross-year style, not fundamental changes; In the medium and long term, the lithium battery industry still maintains a high development momentum and is still the best investment track. In terms of policy, China’s subsidy has declined by 30% this year, but the impact has gradually subsided. The new energy vehicle market has gradually shifted from policy driven to supply driven demand and even endogenous demand growth, and new energy vehicles are still the main line of China’s steady growth; Overseas, many European governments and traditional automobile enterprise groups continue to increase the weight of new energy vehicles, and the U.S. stimulus proposal will further accelerate the development of the industry; From the perspective of lithium battery industry chain, battery factories and material factories have steadily expanded their production capacity, the production scheduling of each link has climbed month by month, the demand of the middle and downstream has been increasing, and the non power batteries such as energy storage have gradually increased, and the industry still maintains high-speed growth. The industry’s high growth and high outlook support the plate upward. It is recommended to pay attention to battery plants with global competitiveness at the head and midstream material links with still tight relative supply and demand, such as negative electrode, graphitization, diaphragm, etc.
The contradiction between supply and demand supports the central high of lithium price without affecting downstream demand, and the performance of lithium section is gradually realized
Under the background that the demand for lithium battery continues to rise and urgent, and the installed capacity and production schedule rise month by month, the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium salt intensifies, the spot futures price and long-term individual price continue to rise, and the difficulty and progress of lithium resource development are difficult to match the speed and magnitude of downstream demand growth, which strongly supports the medium and long-term high lithium price. For vehicle manufacturers, the resources tend to be new energy vehicles, and the models and market layout have higher priority. The rise in the cost of a single link does not affect the model launch and the overall market demand, and there is still a price buffer for some lithium battery midstream links and auto parts. At present, lithium salt and concentrate inventories in all links are at a low level, while the growing capacity expansion in the middle and lower reaches, goods preparation years ago and concerns about lithium supply in all links have further amplified the demand for lithium resources in the upper reaches; Therefore, throughout the industrial chain, the strategy of upstream lithium resources has been continuously strengthened, and all parties have increased the global layout of lithium. Lithium salt supply has become the decisive factor for the release of capacity in the middle and downstream, and the profit has moved up.
Investment suggestions: it is suggested to pay attention to the industry leaders with global competitiveness and high growth tracks represented by lithium iron phosphate and high nickel: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ; It is suggested to pay attention to the links and companies that are still tight in supply and demand, can obtain excess profits of the industrial chain and continue to expand: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) .
Risk warning: the development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; Disruptive breakthroughs in related technologies; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Product prices fell more than expected; Price fluctuation of raw materials.
