Industry perspective update:
Home furnishing: according to the financial associated press this week, the lending rate of second-hand housing loans in Shanghai has accelerated compared with that before, and the end of real estate policy has been further proved, driving the overall home furnishing demand expectation is also ushering in a significant reversal. When the valuations of the previous plate and mainstream stocks have fallen to a low level, the sustainability of the overall market of the plate is worth looking forward to, and the sustainability of high-quality stocks will be more significant. From the perspective of flexible strategy, we continue to focus on Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) improving its own market. We believe that Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) has undergone positive changes from strategy to terminal implementation, the performance growth is expected to return to the normal track, and the valuation has a lot of room for revision. From the perspective of long-term stable strategy, we continue to focus on European School and Gu Jia. Under the background of large home integration, the category and channel layout have obviously taken the lead in the industry, their own growth path is clear, and the long-term stable growth of performance can be expected. The 22-year valuation is only 22x / 26x respectively.
New type of tobacco: in terms of atomization sector, SIMORE made a large adjustment this week. According to the tracking situation, the company's overseas business order receiving is still relatively ideal, and we still maintain the previous view in China business. The short-term head manufacturers will indeed face the pressure of order receiving in China due to the clear inventory of canals, but after the implementation of the policy in the future, Overall, the certainty of business development and pattern optimization of Chinese manufacturers will be improved. In terms of HNB sector, the overall expectation for the better development of China's HNB industry in the future remains unchanged. At present, China is still in a policy waiting period.
Papermaking: both supply and demand are weak, the pressure of box board paper to warehouse is still large, and the disturbance at the supply end of pulp price shows an upward trend, waiting for the demand to improve. 1) Starting point: the operating rates of coated paper and double offset paper were - 0.1% and - 0.3% month on month, and the operating load rate of white cardboard industry was - 0.04% compared with that of last week. According to grassroots research, some small paper mills reduced their production independently, and the pressure on the supply side was weakened. The operating rates of corrugated box board were + 4.5% and + 3.1% month on month respectively. 2) Inventory angle: the inventory days of coated paper and double offset paper are + 1.6% and + 1.9% respectively, the inventory of white cardboard is + 1.2%, and the inventory of box board corrugated paper is + 20% and + 18.3% respectively; 3) Cost side: Recently, under the disturbance of multiple factors on the supply side, futures have driven the spot price upward, but the support on the demand side is weak, and the follow-up action is expected to slow down.
Investment advice
Home furnishings: recommend Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (Integrated Business & platform), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (concentration of domestic sales share & export profit elasticity), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (it is improving in many aspects, and there is a large space for valuation and repair).
Electronic cigarette: recommended by Warburg International (China's traditional flavor industry, leading in the field of HNB flavor and thin film, next year, overseas business is expected to take the lead and China will have huge space after opening up in China.
Papermaking: it is suggested to pay attention to Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) with smooth medium-term growth logic (the project progress in Guangxi has been announced recently, the new pulp and paper project has passed the energy assessment, the forest land circulation has been smoothly promoted, the signing of Laizhou project is expected to increase the performance in 22 years, and the compound growth rate of the main industry is expected to be 25% from 2022 to 2024).
Risk factors
The extent and duration of the slowdown in China's consumption growth exceeded expectations; Real estate sales have been shrinking sharply for a long time; The rising range and time of chemical raw material prices exceeded expectations; The exchange rate fluctuated sharply.
