View of this week: the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be released in 2022, and the industry boom is expected to continue
In 2022, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be officially issued, which is generally positive. On December 31, 2021, the four ministries and commissions jointly issued the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022. On the whole, the subsidy policy in 2022 continues the tone laid in the notice on improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2020, At the same time, there are some positive changes in details: 1) it is clear that the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles will be terminated on December 31, 2022, without mentioning the maximum subsidy scale of 2 million vehicles in CAIJIAN No. 86 document in 2020; 2) In 2022, the framework and threshold requirements of the current technical index system of purchase subsidies for new energy vehicles will remain unchanged; 3) It is clear that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021, which is in line with expectations.
The prosperity of new energy vehicle industry is expected to continue in 2022. In 2021, the overall performance of China’s automobile sales was relatively flat, but the new energy vehicles maintained strong growth. In the first November, the sales volume was 2.99 million, a year-on-year increase of nearly 170%. We believe that the subsidy scheme issued this time will further stimulate market demand, and the high-profile outlook of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market in 2022 is expected to continue. In the medium and long term, at present, electrification has become the consensus of traditional car enterprises and new forces in car manufacturing. A hundred flowers bloom on the supply side. Tesla / Xiaopeng / ideal / Weilai sales will achieve rapid growth in 2021. We believe that the resonance between the supply side and the demand side has promoted the industry to enter the stage of spontaneous growth, and the market prospect of new energy vehicles is still optimistic after the withdrawal of subsidies.
Market review of this week: the performance of power equipment sector is poor in the first week of 2022
This week, the power equipment sector fell 8.3%, lower than 5.9% of the CSI 300 index, of which other power equipment performed best (- 4.8%) and photovoltaic equipment performed relatively poorly (- 9.4%).
Industrial chain tracking: the prosperity of lithium battery industry chain continues, and the price of silicon material ends to decline
Lithium battery: the downstream demand boom is superimposed, and the shortage of some raw materials continues. In January 2021, the overall price of lithium battery industry chain still rises, mainly reflected in cathode materials.
Photovoltaic: the price of silicon materials and modules tends to be stable this week. The inventory clearing of modules since November 2021 is coming to an end. The production scheduling of modules is significantly improved in January 2022, and the prices of silicon wafers and batteries are strongly supported. With the overall slowdown of downstream purchasing rhythm before the Spring Festival, it is expected that the price of the industrial chain will remain relatively stable. With the gradual release of new silicon production capacity from 2022, the terminal installation demand is expected to rise rapidly.
Risk tips: changes in new energy industry policies, supply chain bottlenecks lead to lower than expected demand, intensified market competition leads to decline in industry profitability, etc
