Construction: the infrastructure boom is superimposed upward and the valuation is reshaped. The restlessness in spring is expected to be stronger than in previous years
The historical Q1 performance of the construction sector is better, and the excess return of Q1 is more obvious in the year with high stable growth expectation and large market fluctuation. We believe that the demand for steady economic growth in 22q1 may be stronger than that in the past five years. On the premise of the acceleration of special bonds, financial advance and sufficient reserves of major projects, it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure in 22q1 is expected to improve significantly month on month, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 5% in a single quarter. Although the overall elasticity of infrastructure construction in the whole year of 22 is limited, the subdivided areas such as Shandong, Sichuan and Chongqing, and the subdivided fields such as green power, affordable housing, pipe network, cold chain and major transportation are expected to show good growth sustainability and elasticity. Driven by the revaluation of operating assets (REITs and green power) and the improvement of quality and efficiency of state-owned enterprise reform, the sustainability of the revaluation of central state-owned enterprises is expected to exceed expectations, and new energy is expected to open up the growth space of energy infrastructure, steel structure and other sectors. Traditional infrastructure ( China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) ), energy infrastructure ( Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) ), steel structure ( Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) ), infrastructure and architectural design ( China Design Group Co.Ltd(603018) , Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) ) are recommended.
Cement: policy force superposition and high price starting point provide favorable support for this round of agitation
There is an obvious “restless spring” market in the cement index. In recent 20 years, the Q1 cement index has risen for 13 years, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index for 16 years, and the average relative return in recent five years is 7%. The correlation between Q1 investment growth and cement market is weak, and the policy tone and Q1 price change have a more important impact on the market. The central economic work conference in the year of 21 emphasized that the economy is growing steadily and the policy environment is relatively friendly, and it is still possible to increase the weight in the future; By the end of the 21st century, the national cement price had increased by 85 yuan / ton year-on-year, which laid a good start for 22 years. At the same time, the decline of coal price promoted the improvement of the profit per ton of cement enterprises, the performance of Q1 cement enterprises was better, and the restless market can be expected. In the medium and long term, the cement industry as a whole may develop in the trend of “volume reduction and price increase”. If carbon trading is included in 22 years or the supply side concentration is accelerated, the improvement of leading share is expected to support performance growth. From the perspective of dividend yield and valuation, cement company has high investment cost performance. Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) are recommended.
Consumer building materials: the restless market over the years is remarkable, and the waterproof performance is better
In the past five years, the absolute / relative returns of the consumer building materials index Q1 are positive, with an average relative return of 14.4%, and the restless market in spring is significant. In recent five years: 1) the restless market of waterproof enterprises in Q1 is more obvious, and the top three average increases in recent five years are waterproof enterprises; 2) Q1 company’s share price increase has weak correlation with Q1 performance, but has strong correlation with the annual performance; 3) In the turbulent market of Q1, the leading enterprises performed better. We expect that it is related to the more stable operation of the leading enterprises and the stronger ability to resist risks during the year. The real estate fundamentals may still be at the bottom stage in Q1. Under the joint influence of the base and industry capital, it is difficult to significantly improve the year-on-year growth rate of real estate physical volume in Q1, but the improvement trend at the policy side may continue, and the possibility of gradual improvement of fundamentals after 22q2 is high. In the past 22 years, with the improvement of adverse factors, there is a great possibility of high growth in the performance of consumer building materials under the low base, Q1 or a better layout time point. Recommended Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) .
Glass: the “restless spring” market is not obvious. It is optimistic that the completion will continue to pick up, and the recovery after the festival can still be expected
Glass “spring agitation” “The market situation is not obvious. The average absolute return of Q1 in recent ten years is only 2%, and there is basically no relative return. We judge that it may be related to Q1 is still in the off-season inventory accumulation stage, and it is difficult for product prices to rise. At present, glass prices have fallen to the low point of Q1 last year, and high inventories remain, and there is still a risk of decline before the festival. We are optimistic that the completion will continue to pick up, the demand for 22h1 glass is still supported, and medium and long-term construction will continue Energy saving and consumption reduction is expected to drive the increase of glass demand. The 22-year cold repair capacity on the supply side may increase, float glass is still in a tight balance between supply and demand, and the downward space of unit profit is limited. At present, the market value of glass leaders is at a low level, and there is still a period of recovery after the festival. It is recommended to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) .
Risk tip: the recovery of infrastructure investment was less than expected, real estate investment fell sharply, and the price of cement / glass fell more before the festival.
