Main points:
Banking stocks: industry index rebounded
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking index rose by 2.89% this week, ranking fifth among the 28 Shenwan industries. In the first week of the year, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) and Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) share prices rose by 8.24%, 7.14%, 6.75% and 6.35% respectively.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: the net withdrawal of money, the inter-bank market interest rate decreased, the total amount of money invested this week was 40 billion yuan, the total withdrawal was 700 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal of money was 660 billion yuan, a decrease of 1260 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, the currency has realized a net return of 660 billion yuan. This week, the inter-bank bond pledge repo rate and interbank lending rate decreased. On January 7, dr007 was 1.80%, down 70bps compared with last Friday. Dr001 was 1.84%, a decrease of 20bps compared with last Friday. The overnight lending rate was 1.89%, down 32bps from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.37%, down 11bps from last Friday.
Inter bank certificate of deposit issuance interest rate: the inter-bank certificate of deposit issuance interest rate decreased. This week, the inter-bank certificate of deposit issuance interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m decreased. On January 7, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.41%, 2.64% and 2.79% respectively. Compared with last Friday, the changes were – 27bps, – 18bps and – 15bps respectively.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread between China and the United States has expanded
This week, the yield of 1y treasury bonds decreased, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds increased, and the term interest spread expanded. On January 7, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 2.23% and 2.82% respectively, with changes of – 1bp and + 4bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.59%, up 6bps from last Friday.
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds increased, and the term interest spread expanded. On January 7, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 0.43% and 1.76% respectively, with changes of + 4bps and + 24bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 1.33%, up 20bps from last Friday.
U.S. liquidity indicators: the debt interest margin of non-financial enterprises increased, and the tips yield increased (1) on January 6, the U.S. guaranteed overnight financing interest rate was 0.05%, unchanged from last Friday; (2) On January 6, the adjusted spread of US corporate bond options was 3.15%, up 5bps compared with last Friday; (3) On January 7, the yield of US inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) was – 0.72%, up 32bps compared with last Friday.
Investment advice
Bank stocks rebounded significantly this week and the market opened in the first quarter. Looking forward to 2022, wide credit is the boundary of market consensus. It is difficult to determine the subject and scale of wide credit outside the boundary. However, from the perspective of structure, in the incremental credit structure since 2019, the proportion of individual non housing loans has gradually increased, which is the only reliable logic from top to bottom. We recommend Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
Risk tips
The macro economy went down more than expected.
