Market review: as of January 7, 2022, Shenwan auto sector fell 3.92% this week, 1.54 percentage points lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking 24th among Shenwan 31 industries. All five sub sectors of Shenwan automobile industry fell, with passenger cars falling the most. The specific performance is as follows: the automobile service sector fell 0.89%, the motorcycle and other sectors fell 1.40%, the commercial vehicle sector fell 1.67%, the auto parts sector fell 3.31%, and the passenger vehicle sector fell 6.08%. The top three companies with weekly growth were Wuxi Best Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300580) , Yangzhou Yaxingmotor Coach Co.Ltd(600213) , Dynavolt Renewable Energy Technology (Henan) Co.Ltd(002684) , up 27.6%, 22.06% and 17.84% respectively. The top three companies with weekly declines were Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) , Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) , Ningbo Heli Technology Co.Ltd(603917) , with declines of 23.67%, 18.40% and 18.28% respectively. In terms of valuation, as of January 7, the pettm of Shenwan automobile sector was 30 times, at the quantile of 86.52% in recent five years and 92.29% in recent ten years; In terms of sub sectors, the pettm of automobile service sector is 19 times, that of auto parts sector is 28 times, that of passenger car sector is 37 times, and that of commercial vehicle sector is 23 times.
Key industrial news: 1. According to the data of the passenger car Federation, from December 27 to 31, 2021, 546000 passenger cars were retailed, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, a month-on-week decrease of 5%, and a total increase of 5% over the same period last month. According to the preliminary internal statistics of the passenger Federation, the overall retail data of passenger cars in December was 2.157 million, with a daily average of 69000, a year-on-year decrease of 6% and a month on month increase of 19%. 2. It was reported on January 9 that the review of the second batch of national fuel cell vehicle demonstration and application urban agglomeration has been completed. Henan urban agglomeration led by Zhengzhou and Hebei Urban Agglomeration led by Zhangjiakou, Hebei have recently been approved, and the national “3 + 2” fuel cell vehicle demonstration pattern has accelerated.
View of Auto Industry Week: this week, the auto sector continued to callback as a whole, and the passenger car and auto parts sub sector showed a weak performance with a large decline. According to the preliminary statistics of the passenger Federation, in December, the automobile production and sales continued the momentum of year-on-year decline and month on month growth, which was in line with expectations. With the gradual improvement of chip supply and the peak sales season, automobile production and sales have achieved month on month growth for four consecutive months. Car sales are expected to further strengthen before the Spring Festival. The follow-up inventory replenishment trend appears, and the demand of parts and components will continue to be repaired. Henan urban agglomeration led by Zhengzhou and Hebei Urban Agglomeration led by Zhangjiakou in Hebei have recently been approved as the second batch of national fuel cell vehicle demonstration and application urban agglomeration, and the national “3 + 2” fuel cell vehicle demonstration pattern has been accelerated. It is suggested to focus on global competitiveness, actively transform to electric intelligence, and benefit from the elasticity of demand replenishment after improved chip supply: Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) (300258), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (000887), Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) (002126); And the core targets of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry chain actively promoted by the policy: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (000723), Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) (000338).
Risk tip: chip shortage exceeds expectations, automobile production and sales are lower than expectations, raw material prices rise sharply, competition intensifies, trade friction, etc.
