Focus this week: who released the report on tobacco epidemic trends 2020-2025, indicating that tobacco use is declining in 150 countries, of which 60 countries are expected to achieve the voluntary harm reduction targets set out in the WHO global plan for the prevention and control of non communicable diseases 2013-2020.
The global smoking rate continued to decline, and the smoking rate of young people aged 15-24 decreased significantly
In 2000, about one third (32.7%) of the global population aged 15 and over were tobacco users. By 2020, this proportion has decreased to less than one quarter (22.3%) of the global population. Assuming that all countries maintain their current efforts in tobacco control, it is expected that the smoking rate will further decline to about one fifth (20.4%) of the global population by 2025. Among them, the male smoking rate decreased from 49.3% in 2000 to 36.7% in 2020, which is expected to decrease to 34.3% in 2025, the female smoking rate decreased from 16.2% in 2000 to 7.8% in 2020, and it is expected to decrease to 6.6% in 2025. By age, the tobacco use rate of men and women in each age group decreased steadily from 2000 to 2020, and it is expected to maintain this trend by 2025. Among them, the average tobacco use rate of young people aged 15-24 has decreased from 20.8% in 2000 to 14.2% in 2020, and is expected to reach 13.0% in 2025. Among them, the smoking rate of men aged 15-24 has decreased from 32.7% in 2000 to 23.3% in 2020, and is expected to reach 21.6% in 2025; The smoking rate of women aged 15-24 decreased from 8.4% in 2000 to 4.4% in 2020, and it is expected to continue to decline to 3.8% by 2025.
The average smoking rate in North America decreased the fastest, and middle and high-income countries are expected to maintain high smoking rates
The average smoking rate in the areas covered by who is declining, of which North America has the fastest decline, from 28% to 16.3% from 2000 to 2020, from 17.9% to 10.3% in Africa, from 50.4% to 29% in Southeast Asia, and from 34.6% to 25.3% in Europe; The West The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) region has the slowest decline, from 27.9% to 24.6%. By income group, the prevalence of tobacco use in all income groups showed a downward trend. In 2000, the average smoking rate in low-income countries was the highest, but it is expected to drop to about 21% by 2025, similar to the average level (20%) in high-income countries; The average smoking rate of middle and high-income countries in 2000 was 28%, and it is expected that the average smoking rate will be 23% by the end of 2025, which is the slowest decline among all income groups, and the smoking rate is the highest among all income groups; The smoking rate in low-income countries was 21.1% in 2000, and it is expected to maintain the lowest average smoking rate between 2000 and 2025, reaching 11% by 2025.
The total number of tobacco users has decreased steadily, and countries have made sustained efforts to reduce harm
From 2000 to 2020, the total number of tobacco users of men and women is steadily declining. In 2000, 1.37 billion people aged 15 and over used tobacco products, reaching 1.3 billion in 2020, and it is expected to further decline to 1.27 billion by 2025. Countries are still making efforts to achieve the goal of reducing the global prevalence of tobacco use among people aged 15 and over by 30% by 2025 compared with 2010. We believe that countries are encouraging smokers to turn to low-risk new tobacco substitutes, and new tobacco has also become an important transformation and layout direction of overseas tobacco giants. China’s heated non combustible tobacco market is expected to breed a considerable market scale due to China’s large base of smokers. It is suggested to pay attention to HNB related supply chain enterprises.
Investment recommendation 1) HNB industry chain: key recommendation – Warburg international / shares (China tobacco flavor leader, new private license of thin sheet) [joint coverage with food and beverage team], Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) (China Tobacco standard faucet, sole strategic cooperation with Yunnan tobacco, private enterprise) [joint coverage with light industry group]; It is suggested to pay attention to: Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) , Shanghai Shunho New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002565) , Shantou Dongfeng Printing Co.Ltd(601515) [light industry team coverage], China Tobacco Hong Kong and Bolton, China. 2) Atomization industry chain: key recommendation – smore International (leading global atomization equipment manufacturer), followed by fog core technology (leading Chinese atomization brand) and Shenzhen Aisidi Co.Ltd(002416) (leading Chinese atomization channel). Risk tip: the risk of new tobacco policy changes, the risk of sales / enterprise development falling short of expectations and intensified market competition.
