Market review:
As of the closing on January 7, the coal sector rose 0.34% this week, the CSI 300 index fell 2.39%, and the coal sector rose 2.73% ahead of the CSI 300 index. From the plate ranking, the weekly increase of coal plate ranks 15th among Shenwan 31 plates, with an increase of 0.34% year to date, ranking 13th among Shenwan 31 plates.
Talk every Monday:
The downstream procurement has improved and the power coal price has strengthened slightly: Recently, the coal supply guarantee policy is still being implemented, and the daily consumption of power plants is running at a high level. In the early stage, the Indonesian government decided to prohibit coal export in January and speed up the progress of China’s coal depots. The procurement demand of downstream non power plants has improved significantly this week, and the coal inventory in the northern port fell by 6.18% on a weekly basis, but it is still at a high level (+ 16.46%) on a year-on-year basis, The price of thermal coal strengthened slightly, and the coal price of Qinhuangdao port (q5500) rose by 30 yuan / ton to 830 yuan / ton; With the cooling of the cold wave in many parts of the country, the daily consumption of power plants has room to rise, but subject to high inventory, the rise of coal price is expected to be limited. With the promotion of the reform of coal pricing mechanism, the fluctuation range of coal price is expected to narrow, and gradually move closer to the long-term association price. Continue to pay attention to the impact of winter security inspection of production areas and changes in Indonesian export policies on the supply side;
The steel plant continued to resume production and the second round of coke rose and landed: on Friday, the output of large varieties of steel increased by + 2.62% (+ 0.47pct) on a weekly basis, short-term high profits or stimulated the steel plant to resume production after the 21-year output limit was lifted, the steel plant’s enthusiasm for coke procurement improved, the second round of coke rose and landed, and the factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke increased by 200 yuan / ton to 2860 yuan / ton; 10% – 30% of coke enterprises in Shandong are limited in production. Shanxi has launched the “100 day tackling key problems” action of safety production, and the safety inspection has become stricter. Coke enterprises are willing to further raise prices; The price of coking coal continued to operate strongly under the influence of the security inspection actions of the main producing areas. The price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi, Jingtang Port increased by 150 yuan / ton to 2600 yuan / ton a week, the profitability of coking enterprises recovered and the enthusiasm for procurement increased; The possibility of continuous administrative production restriction in the iron and steel industry has gradually decreased, and the subsequent resumption of production of steel plants is expected to increase. Affected by the increase of steel plant production and the security inspection of double coke origin, the price of coal coke is expected to continue to strengthen;
Market impact: the change of Indonesia’s export policy has a short-term impact on the power coal supply side, and the long-term profit of the coal industry and the expectation of transformation are expected to promote the revaluation of the sector; It is expected that the resumption of blast furnace production in steel mills will increase, and the demand for coal coke may gradually improve. In the near future, the price of coal coke is expected to continue to strengthen under the background of stricter security inspection at the origin;
Investment strategy: focus on Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) and Yankuang energy, which benefit from the central rise of Changxie coal price, abundant cash flow and high dividend rate, and pay long-term attention to Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) benefiting from the increase of coking coal price and the deepening of national reform.
Risk tip: the policy strength exceeds the expectation, the demand is less than the expectation, and the power policy changes.
