Main points
This week, the home appliance sector increased by 4.4%, of which the white electricity / Black electricity / kitchen electricity / small household appliances sector increased by 5.7% / – 0.2% / 3.6% / 2.7% respectively. Individual stocks in the sector generally rose, led by white power sector Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) , with a weekly increase of 12.0%; Kitchen electricity sector Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) performed well, with weekly increases of 5.4% and 5.1%; The small household appliance sector Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) , Lake Electric Appliance and Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) performed well, with weekly increases of 15.6%, 12.6% and 11.1%. In terms of raw materials, LME aluminum, steel and plastics prices rose 4.0%, 0.1% and 2.6% month on month, and LME copper prices fell 0.8% month on month.
The marginal real estate policy is relaxed, and the post real estate cycle household appliances are expected to pick up. According to the financial Associated Press news on the evening of January 6, 2022, the bank has informed some large high-quality real estate enterprises that the debt collection M & A loans for the projects of enterprises in danger are no longer included in the “three red lines”, which is conducive to the integration of the real estate industry and the recovery of market confidence. In addition, many cities have also introduced demand side stimulus policies recently. At this stage, there are clear positive expectations at the policy level, and we are optimistic about the subsequent real estate improvement. Since the end of September 21, the policy side has been favorable frequently, the central government and various ministries and commissions have continuously released stability maintenance signals, and the real estate financing policy is expected to change from excessive tightening to moderate tightening. Benefiting from the stabilization of policies and the improvement of financing side, white power, kitchen power and real estate are highly correlated in the post cycle, and the sector is expected to pick up.
Investment advice
As the key beneficiary sector of the third consumer society, the field of small household appliances continues to be optimistic about the new opportunities brought by new consumption to the field of small household appliances. In the early stage, the kitchen small household appliances sector was subject to the pressure of the base, and the stock price was sharply corrected. At present, the value is undervalued, the safety margin is high, and there is sufficient growth space to continue to benefit from the new consumption concept for a long time. It is recommended to pay attention to Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) with the rapid growth of its own brand. While consolidating the advantages of kitchen appliances, Mofei actively arranges home environment categories with better growth, which is expected to further open the development space of domestic sales business and have strong certainty of marginal improvement of performance.
Portable massage apparatus, projectors, cleaning appliances and integrated stoves of emerging household appliances maintained a high boom, and the penetration promotion logic continued to be verified by data. Leading companies have a thorough understanding of consumers, strong marketing ability and outstanding brand strength, and are expected to fully enjoy the dividends of industry growth. Intelligent cleaning appliances are in line with consumers’ pursuit of quality life and hands-free in the third consumption era. Floor sweeping and mopping products are expected to become the rigid needs of families. It is recommended to pay attention to the margin improvement of domestic and export sales, with strong certainty, continue to supplement the marketing weakness and improve the brand voice. At this stage, the valuation is Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) with outstanding cost performance. Continue to recommend Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) with the vision of long-term leading strategic pattern, strong brand marketing and high-end product positioning. It is suggested to pay attention to the integrated stove leader Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) with strong product power and continuous improvement results.
Subject to weak terminal demand and rising raw material prices, the traditional household appliance sector has experienced a double kill of performance and valuation in the past 21 years. Looking forward to 2022, the marginal improvement space of the plate is clear, and it is expected to usher in an upward turning point. In addition, Baidian leader grasped the favorable opportunity of Baidian reshuffle period, accelerated channel reform, optimized intelligent manufacturing, improved terminal price, collectively repurchased shares in the capital market, strengthened employee incentive and demonstrated development confidence. It is recommended to focus on Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) with outstanding valuation and cost performance and leading advantages in the layout and channel reform of the whole category of household appliances.
Risk tips
Risk of rising raw material prices, risk of less than expected demand, risk of repeated epidemic, impact of exchange rate fluctuations, risk of chip shortage and price rise.
