In December 2021, the monthly growth rate of media (CITIC) reached 15.6%, leading the whole industry, and achieved positive earnings for five consecutive months. We believe that it is mainly due to the theme catalysis of the meta universe. There are differences about the meta universe, but the consensus is converging. Compared with PC Internet, mobile Internet has improved portability and more natural interaction mode, and its application scenario and total output value have been multiplied. Metauniverse, or the next generation Internet, is expected to further upgrade the interaction mode based on XR products, including gesture sensing, motion capture, eye tracking, tactile feedback and even brain computer interface; The product form in the form of glasses will bring portability no less than that of mobile phones. According to the estimate of the CEO of Qualcomm, the sales volume of quest2 has reached 10 million units, and the development of VR in the consumer market may have reached an inflection point. According to third-party data, oculus applications were downloaded 120 / 240 / 440 / 10.62 million times in 2018-2021. Relevant investment and financing of yuancosmos are active. The valuation of yuancosmos content platform zepeto is over $1 billion, the valuation of VR social platform recroom is $3.5 billion, and the recent financing of digital product trading platform opensea is $300 million, with a valuation of over $13 billion. In December 2021, Netease announced the meta universe plan, including one game (Dahua journey to the West), one technology (Youling virtual human SDK) and one platform (Yaotai); Baidu released the meta universe platform “Xi soil”. The exploration of digital assets and virtual human related application fields has maintained a high degree of activity. We are optimistic about the development opportunities brought by metauniverse and the next generation Internet to the media industry. Based on this, we give the industry a “recommended” rating.
Looking forward to 2022, focus on the following opportunities:
1) high quality content companies, mainly including game and video sectors. At present, the overall valuation of the game sector is low, focusing on the reissue of the version number and the sea of the game. Key recommendations Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) . The video sector focuses on price increase and controllable factor costs in the medium and long term, and focuses on the increment of copyright distribution value that may be brought by short video channels in the short term. Focus on the platform with leading self-control ability. Pay attention to the changes of industry pattern. Key recommendation Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) .
2) new content and new consumer companies with private domain traffic. Tide play is one of the sectors with the highest growth rate in the pan entertainment sector. The field of tide play is expected to produce toy giants and even pan entertainment giants. Globally, Lego, the toy leader, will have a revenue of 45 billion yuan and a net profit of more than 10 billion yuan in 2020; Disney, the pan entertainment leader, has a market value of more than 260 billion US dollars. Paopaomate is highly recommended. In 2021q3, the operation data performed well, the number of members surged to 18 million, the number of paying users arppu increased by 30%, the growth of private platform box extractors was strong, the same store is expected to remain stable, and the non blind box product lines such as mega and derivatives verify the core logic of IP operation.
3) companies benefiting from the increase of flow price. Key recommendation Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , the company’s medium-term logic remains unchanged, and the scarce brand media value highlights under the background of rising traffic prices. The core focus is on the price increase and final landing in 2022 on the basis of the good publication hanging rate this year. Grassroots research in the fourth quarter showed that the publication hanging rate remained high.
4) meta universe theme, mainly copyright and IP related owners and application related (exhibition hall, virtual human and digital collection). Focus on Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) , Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) , Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) , Bluefocus Intelligent Communications Group Co.Ltd(300058) , Zhejiang Huace Film And Tv Co.Ltd(300133) , Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) , Hangzhou Electronic Soul Network Technology Co.Ltd(603258) , Col Digital Publishing Group Co.Ltd(300364) , Oriental Pearl Group Co.Ltd(600637) and other subjects.
In the education sector, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the reform of vocational education system, including opportunities related to secondary vocational education, vocational undergraduate education and quality education, with emphasis on Jiangsu Chuanzhiboke Education Technology Co.Ltd(003032) , China Oriental Education and higher education.
Risk tips: stricter policy supervision, less than expected launch progress and market performance of key products, less than expected performance of recommended companies, intensified market competition, risk of lifting the ban and reducing holdings, corporate governance risk, market style switching, grass-roots research data may have limited representativeness, and the relevant data are only for reference.
