Key investment points
Weekly resumption: the rise and fall of this week ranked 13th, and the PE of SW passenger car was in the historical quantile of 89%; SW car fell 2.7%, underperforming the market by 0.2pct. SW passenger cars, SW commercial trucks, SW commercial buses, SW auto parts and SW auto services all showed a downward trend. Among the 28 industries in Shenwan level, the automobile sector ranked 13th this week, ranking in the middle. In terms of valuation, since 2011, the PE / Pb of SW passenger cars have been in the historical 89% / 79% quantile respectively, with the quantile of – 1PCT / – 3PCT compared with last week; Pe/pb of SW parts were at the historical 55%/30% quantile, with the quantile of -2pct/-4pct compared with last week. Horizontal comparison, passenger car sector valuation in PE is higher than white appliances than Baijiu, PB is lower than white household appliances and Baijiu; The valuation of auto parts sector is lower than that of computer and higher than that of media in terms of PE and Pb. (this week specifically refers to 202204.09 ~ 202204.16, the same below. If the year is not indicated before the month / quarter in the text, it is the current year of 2022 by default)
Boom tracking: the shortage of chips continued to improve, and retail sales fell month on month; Enterprise & Channel replenishment. From April 1 to 10, the average daily retail sales volume of passenger cars was 24588, with a year-on-year increase of – 32% and a month on month increase of – 39%; In the first week of April, the cumulative average daily retail sales volume of passenger cars was 24588, with a year-on-year increase of – 32% and a month on month increase of – 39%; From April 1 to 10, the average daily wholesale sales volume was 24219, with a year-on-year increase of – 39% and a month on month increase of – 45%; In the first week of April, the cumulative average daily wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 24219, with a year-on-year increase of – 39% and a month on month increase of – 45%.
The output of narrow passenger cars in March was 1.823 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.3% and a month on month increase of + 22.0%; The wholesale sales volume was 1.814 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.6% and a month on month increase of + 23.6%. In March, there were 1410700 strong traffic insurance vehicles in the industry, with a month on month ratio of – 15.6% / + 26.46% respectively. Inventory: in March, the overall enterprise inventory of the passenger car industry was + 9000 units, and the channel inventory was + 296000 units.
Key focus: the price of raw materials decreased slightly. According to our self built passenger car raw material price index model, weighted by the five raw material price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel, the overall raw material price index of passenger cars this week (04.11-04.15) was – 2.01% month on month (04.06-04.08), and the price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel were – 0.22% / – 3.29% / – 1.73% / – 1.43% / – 1.89% month on month (04.11-04.15).
Investment suggestion: the short-term epidemic brings fluctuations, and the logic of long-term optimistic about the automobile sector is still tenable. In 2022, there were 8 major gold stocks: complete vehicle [ideal + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Xiaopeng + Great Wall], parts [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ]. Secondly, the whole vehicle [GAC + Geely + Geely + Changan + coming of life + SAIC + well off + Jianghuai] and the whole vehicle [GAC + geegeely + Changan + well-off + well-off + JAC] and the whole vehicle [GAC + Geely + Geely + Changan + Changan + long vehicle + the whole vehicle + the whole vehicle [GAC + Geely + Geely + Geely + Changan + Changan + Changan + well + coming + SAIC + SAIC + SAIC + SAIC + SAIC + well + well off + well off + well off + jachuai + etc, parts and components [ Guangxi Radio And Television Information Network Corporation Limited(600936) 0093 Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) 933 + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) for Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) 9 ].
Risk tip: the impact of chip shortage exceeded expectations, and the price war of passenger cars exceeded expectations.
