Market review: the bank index rose the most
In the current period (1.4-1.7), the CSI 300 index fell by 2.39%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.65%, the gem index fell by 6.80%, and the industry sector rose by 1 level and fell by 14. Among them, the bank index rose 2.87%, ranking fourth among the 30 CITIC primary industry indexes. Among bank stocks, the top three gainers were Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) (+ 8.24%), Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (+ 7.14%) and Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) (+ 6.75%). The last three increases were Bank Of Zhengzhou Co.Ltd(002936) (+ 0.95%), China Zheshang Bank Co.Ltd(601916) (+ 0.86%) and China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (+ 0.70%).
The central bank’s net withdrawal of money in the current period was 660 billion yuan. The issuance of real estate credit bonds was 5.65 billion yuan, an increase of 2.746 billion yuan over the previous period; The net financing amount was 2.807 billion yuan, an increase of 9.412 billion yuan over the previous period. The issuance of local government bonds and net financing amount are zero. The issuance of urban investment bonds reached 69.23 billion yuan, an increase of 31.017 billion yuan over the previous period; The net financing amount was 69.223 billion yuan, an increase of 36.494 billion yuan over the previous period.
Local bonds will be issued soon in 2022
On January 7, 2022, Henan Province issued the information disclosure document of special bonds in 2022. It is planned to issue 38.201 billion yuan of special bonds on January 13 for urban and rural development, social undertakings and shantytown reconstruction. So far, more than a dozen provinces and regions have announced local bond issuance plans for the first quarter, and most of them will issue new bonds in January.
The issuance pace of special bonds has been significantly advanced, and the scale of Q1 issuance and use is expected to be considerable. The release time of “early approval” limit of special bonds in 2022 is basically the same as that in 2019 and 2022, earlier than
Three months in 2021. Due to the early layout, the new special bonds in 2022 will be issued in mid January, and the issuance rhythm is also significantly earlier than that in March 2021. Since the amount approved in advance in 2022 is much higher than that in 2019 and 2020, and the meeting of the State Council Information Office in December last year emphasized that the amount issued in advance should be issued and used in the first quarter. In addition, the financial post-2021, a large number of special bond lines are concentrated in the second half of the year, and will be carried forward to 2022 for use due to project reserves, project progress and other reasons, The scale of issuance and use of special bonds in the first quarter of this year is expected to be considerable.
Special bonds support infrastructure investment, and banks are expected to benefit
Special debt is an important source of capital for infrastructure investment. The central economic work conference in December last year again mentioned “moderately ahead of schedule infrastructure investment”. With the financial carry forward and the quota of special bonds issued in advance, the special bonds invested in infrastructure in the first quarter are expected to be considerable, which is expected to promote the growth rate of infrastructure investment to exceed expectations. As infrastructure investment has the characteristics of large scale, long term and low risk, and plays a stimulating role in the upstream and downstream of the industry, it is expected to provide banks with high-quality asset investment direction and improve the bank’s business environment.
Investment suggestion: active fiscal policy can be expected to benefit the repair of bank assets
The issuance pace of special bonds was advanced, which released a positive signal for the advance of fiscal policy in 2022 and was conducive to the asset side repair of the banking sector. Throughout the year, under the background of steady economic growth, loose credit margin is conducive to the promotion of risk prevention and resolution. As wide credit is conducive to the non interest business expansion of retail banks, credit risk differentiation is good for low exposure retail banks, and retail banks will continue to enjoy excess investment returns. We recommend Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) .
Risk warning: the epidemic situation is repeated, and the economic downturn exceeds expectations; Policy adjustment exceeded expectations; Risk concentration exposure
